Australia could face conflict long before the delivery of nuclear-powered submarines, say experts warning the nation to evolve its defence strategy.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute says Australia must adapt to manage a “looming period of strategic risk” ahead of the first submarines arriving in the early 2030s.
Australia is set to purchase Virginia-class submarines from the United States from early next decade, before a class of nuclear vessels is co-designed with the UK as part of an AUKUS agreement.
The controversial submarine agreement has come under intense scrutiny due to its hefty multi-billion-dollar cost, alongside doubts about the United States’ commitment to fulfilling its part of the deal. Concerns have been exacerbated by delays in production timelines and the Trump administration’s close examination of the contracts involved.
In a bleak report published on Wednesday, the institute raised concerns about Australian “deterrence gaps” that would leave it without enough firepower to counter potential adversaries like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
The medium-term acquisition of AUKUS submarines is irrelevant to the short-term problems facing Australia over the next few years, its report warned.
“That’s because the first AUKUS submarines – US Virginia-class boats – won’t be delivered until 2032, while the purpose-built SSN-AUKUS won’t arrive until the early 2040s,” the institute said.
One expert pointedly noted, “We can’t, in effect, solve a 2027 deterrence problem with a 2032 deterrent capability.” This highlights the pressing concern that waiting for submarine acquisitions in the medium term may fall short of deterring immediate threats.
A recent report underscores the urgency of the situation, arguing that Australia cannot rely solely on future submarine capabilities to counter current security challenges. The Australian government has been advised to consider alternative strategies to dissuade potential adversaries from engaging in military aggression.
The institute urged the Australian government to explore unconventional ways of deterring adversaries from armed aggression.
These methods lie outside of usual military war-fighting and include tactics that operate indirectly against an adversary’s vulnerabilities.
It could also involve working with regional partners to resist coercion and political interference while building domestic capability across cyber security, electronic warfare and space technology.
Australian Industry and Defence Network chief executive Mike Johnson says sovereignty is about security, as well as economic resilience and technological leadership. He will share his vision at the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday.
