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In a significant move this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered interest rates from 4.35% to 3.6%. Until recently, there was optimism about the possibility of another cut by 2025’s close.
However, persistent inflation coupled with a relatively stable job market has left the RBA with little motivation to make further reductions, especially after maintaining the status quo in their September board meeting.
A survey conducted by Finder at the end of October revealed that most experts anticipate the bank will continue to hold rates steady in November, and quite possibly in December as well.
This expectation comes on the heels of a 1.3% rise in the consumer price index during the September quarter, as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Nonetheless, not all analysts are in agreement with this outlook.
Scott O’Neill, chief executive of property investment services company Rethink Group is predicting a 0.25 per cent cut to 3.35 per cent.
“It’s a line-ball decision, but I’m backing a cut,” O’Neill said.
“Inflation has landed squarely in the target range at 2.1 per cent headline (2.7 per cent trimmed mean), and with the economy showing clear signs of softening, the RBA has room to move.”
The RBA board’s decision will be handed down at 2.30pm AEDT.
The bank’s final board meeting for the year will take place in December.
However, most experts are now predicting a rate cut to be delayed until partway through 2026.