Milwaukee Brewers Should Strive For $10.38 Million Compromise With Corbin Burnes
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The MLB Network recently concluded its annual “Top 10 Players Right Now” with spring training on the horizon. The popular offseason program examines every position using a variety of advanced and traditional statistics complemented by research and commentaries by a panel of experts. In the “Top 10 Starting Pitchers Right Now” episode, Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers was honored with the top spot among a group of impressive contemporaries.

The 28-year-old right-handed pitcher is currently preparing for an arbitration hearing as he and the Brewers could not come to terms on a 2023 contract in his second year of eligibility. Burnes, the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner, requested $10.75 million while the Brewers countered with $10.01 million according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The $740,000 difference might seem trivial to the average fan given the salary figures exchanged, but it matters greatly when it comes to establishing fair market value and reasonable expectations for a starting pitcher at a specific stage in arbitration eligibility.

Ball clubs are always concerned at setting bad precedents which could create negative ripples throughout the league. Burnes is the last arbitration-eligible starting pitcher seeking a one-year, eight figure contract. Max Fried, a left-handed starting pitcher for the Atlanta Braves, lost his arbitration hearing and will earn $13.5 million instead of $15 million in his third year of eligibility according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

A common technique used in arbitration hearings are comparisons between ball players that share similarities in terms of position, statistical achievements, and service time. In Burnes’ case, a perfect comparison is Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Guardians. Bieber, the 2020 American League Cy Young Award winner, just avoided arbitration with the Guardians in his second year of eligibility and agreed to a one-year contract worth $10.01 million according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. In terms of 2022 salaries, Burnes ($6.5 million) had an edge over Bieber ($6 million) after winning the 2021 National League Cy Young Award and both had avoided arbitration in their first year of eligibility. Along with the Cy Young Award and arbitration eligibility similarities, both Bieber and Burnes completed their age 27 seasons in 2022 according to Baseball-Reference.

If Burnes and the Brewers wind up in an arbitration hearing, the key argument will be why he deserves more than the $10.01 million being offered which also happens to be the value of Bieber’s one-year contract. Burnes will acknowledge the honor bestowed upon him by the MLB Network along with posting career highs last season in wins (12), games started (33), innings pitched (202.0), and strikeouts (243). There were only two starting pitchers in 2022 who had eclipsed 240 strikeouts and 200 innings pitched: Burnes and Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees. In 200.2 innings pitched, Cole struck out 257 batters according to data collected from Baseball-Reference’s Stathead. Burnes was second in Major League Baseball in strikeouts to Cole and one of only four pitchers to start 33 ball games last season.

Burnes’ excellence has been evident in the swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) statistic. According to FanGraphs, his 15.8 percent is the best among qualified starting pitchers over the past two seasons. In 2022, Burnes posted a 15.1 percent which was third best in Major League Baseball. Out of his 243 strikeouts this past season, 195 were comprised of foul tips (14), swinging strikes (138), or swinging strikes that were blocked by the catcher (43). His pitch of preference was the cutter.

According to Baseball Savant, Burnes featured a six pitch repertoire where he threw 3,274 pitches last season with 1,815 being cutters (55.4 percent). The cutters led to 114 strikeouts at an average velocity of 95 miles per hour and 2,626 revolutions per minute. In 2022, there were two other pitchers in Major League Baseball who threw at least 1,000 cutters along with Burnes: right-handed pitchers Cal Quantrill (1,052) of the Cleveland Guardians and Yu Darvish (1,046) of the San Diego Padres. However, neither could accumulate 50 strikeouts as a byproduct of using the cutter.

The Brewers will likely critique the significant increase in home runs allowed from seven in 2021 over 167 innings (28 starts) to 23 over 202 innings (33 starts) last season regardless of the additional 35 innings (five starts). Bieber had allowed 18 home runs over 200 innings last season according to Baseball-Reference. Besides the noticeable increases in base on balls, earned runs, and hit by pitches, expect the Brewers to focus on an adjusted earned run average (ERA+) going from a major league leading 170 ERA+ in 2021 to a 134 ERA+ at the conclusion of the 2022 season. Given the proliferation of home runs and base on balls, Burnes’ fielding independent pitching (FIP) had jumped from a major league leading 1.63 FIP in 2021 to a 3.14 FIP last season.

Corbin Burnes is one of the best starting pitchers right now in Major League Baseball. However, he is an arbitration-eligible ball player for a small market franchise that is fighting for every dollar while adhering to the principles of fair market value. The possibility still exists that a hearing could be avoided as it makes the most sense for Burnes and the Brewers to settle on a one-year, $10.38 million contract which splits in half the $740,000 difference. The New York Yankees and second baseman Gleyber Torres recently used this approach and avoided an arbitration hearing. Collaboration is imperative given that Burnes has one more year of arbitration eligibility before he becomes a highly coveted free agent at the conclusion of the 2024 season.

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