Race Day Bets, And Red Route One’s Path Through Angel Of Empire And Reincarnate

Yes, Florida has Forte, and all eyes in the country — even (or especially) many trackside at Oaklawn for the pricier $1.25-million Arkansas Derby this afternoon — will be closely monitoring what Forte does or does not do down in Florida in his two minutes an hour before the Arkansas runners get saddled and take to their gate.

But it’s arguable that Arkansas has the more entertaining race this year, what with the four talented top favorites so closely bunched in the bookmakers’ estimation. As the low and most favored man, can Reincarnate really take it to Angel of Empire, or are Angel of Empire’s 54 Kentucky points blinding us a bit to the fact that Reincarnate is actually the morning line favorite?

Faced with questions like that, and very much bringing up the rear of that pack but somehow, tentatively, staying in consideration mainly because of his storied trainer, “Coach” D. Wayne Lukas’ horse, Bourbon Bash, will have a range of Alps to climb to find himself in the winner’s circle. But it adds to the luster of the race day to have had “The Coach” ambling about the barns and the track for the last little while with his full-on Stetson, watching the works as if it were 1982. More power to you, Mr. Lukas.

Before we parse the trackside chatter for race day, herewith a refresher on the order of battle:

(Arkansas Derby: Post Position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line)

1. Bourbon Bash, D. Wayne Lukas, Reylu Gutierrez, 15-1

2. Interlock Empire, Kenny McPeek, David Cabrera, 20-1

3. Harlocap, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 15-1

4. Two Eagles River, Chris Hartman, Nik Juarez, 10-1

5. Airtime, Robertino Diodoro, Cristian Torres, 15-1

6. Angel of Empire, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 9-2

7. Rocket Can, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 4-1

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8. Reincarnate, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 5-2

9. King Russell, Ron Moquett, Rafael Bejarano, 30-1

10. Red Route One, Steve Asmussen, Tyler Gaffalione, 3-1

11. Kolomio, Keith Desormeaux, James Graham, 30-1

(Source: Oaklawn Park, 4/1/2023)

We are delighted to report that for these and the next prep races and for the Derby itself we have the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, the Kentucky horseman who has been so generous with is horse sense with us in many past Triple Crown seasons, back to help us analyze the runners. His help will sharpen our betting considerably.

So, let’s go with Angel of Empire, not exactly the odds favorite, but the points leader in this pack. What say.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Solid. I think the important thing to remember is that he has a race over the track and the second thing to remember is that he’s improving. The third thing to remember is that he has the hot trainer and the hottest jockey. He’s solid and I’m gonna use him.

Working down through the favorites, give us what’s up with Rocket Can.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Same kind of framework, I think. He is legitimate, and he’s improving, but there are a few differences, such as, he left Florida because his connections don’t want to take on Forte, so he has come to Arkansas for another, different kind of shot with a chance at picking up some more points. Ironically, it is a richer race, slightly, than in Florida, and this business does still remain a business, so that makes it an even more natural move to Oaklawn. Like I say, both are good colts and I’m going to use them.

Bear down for us a bit on Mr. Yakteen and his horse, Reincarnate.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Three seconds, two firsts and a third in his career, so, good for him, always in the money. And good for Yakteen, he’s managing it well. His one stakes win was in the Sham at Santa Anita, which was solid, but it was a mile race, and the next time he was out, in the Rebel in February, he was slower, and it was a mile and a sixteenth. He does have Curlin as a paternal grandaddy, which is always good, and he’s the class of the field for a reason at least in the morning line. But if he has a question, it’s going to be the distance. Not whether he can do it, but what does he like. If he gets tangled up in a little traffic, does he have the tactical speed we like to see, or the patience. Can he know enough about himself to save something for the last eighth of a mile? Jury’s out on those questions.