Analysis: The Potential Impact of Tariffs on the Upcoming Holiday Shopping Season

Tariffs might make your holiday shopping more costly this year, potentially driving up the prices of imported items such as clothing and electronics.

A recent analysis by LendingTree suggests that if the current tariffs had been applied last year, American consumers would have seen an additional $28.6 billion added to their holiday shopping expenses—equating to roughly $132 more per shopper.

“For many Americans, an extra $132 during the holiday season is a big deal,” noted Matt Schultz, LendingTree’s chief consumer finance analyst, in the report. “This could lead people to either cut back on the number of gifts they buy or possibly incur more debt.”

Electronics would have seen the largest tariff-induced price increase, averaging $186 per shopper, with clothing and accessories following at $82. Given that a significant portion of these items are imported, LendingTree found these two categories would have made up about 60% of the additional consumer costs.

Overall, consumers spent nearly $378 billion on imported goods while shopping for gifts in November and December 2024, LendingTree said. Much of the merchandise in those categories is now subject to tariffs.

The precise impact on this year’s holiday season will ultimately depend on how much of those tariff costs companies pass on to consumers.

American consumers are expected to shoulder 55% of the costs from President Donald Trump’s tariffs this year, according to a recent Goldman Sachs analysis reported by The Hill, NewsNation’s partner. U.S. businesses and foreign exporters are expected to absorb 22% and 18% of the costs, respectively.

Prices for popular gaming consoles Xbox and PlayStation have already gone up in the U.S., with both Microsoft and Sony citing the broader economic environment. The price of the original Nintendo Switch has also increased in the U.S. recently, which the company attributed to “market conditions.”

Higher tariffs are also beginning to show up in broader inflation data, especially when it comes to rising goods prices. Even so, the impact so far has been milder than many feared, and Fed officials are hopeful the levies won’t spark a new inflationary cycle.

Annual inflation ticked up to 3.0% in September, up from 2.4% in March but far below the 9.1% high in June 2022, according to the Consumer Price Index.

Still, consumers are bracing for holiday price hikes, with 85% expecting higher costs because of tariffs, according to a recent National Retail Federation survey. Despite those concerns, the NRF found that winter holiday spending is projected to remain strong — averaging $890 per person, the second-highest amount in the survey’s 23-year history.

“Time and again, Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights, said in a statement.

Recent economic data suggests consumer spending has held up, though much of that resilience is being driven by high earners — the top 10% of whom now account for roughly half of all spending.

Analysis: The Potential Impact of Tariffs on the Upcoming Holiday Shopping Season

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