Storm Team 3: Rising potential for tropical effects in the southeast next week

SAVANNAH, Ga. () — Impacts from a developing tropical system are becoming more likely for the southeaster U.S. coast early next week.

INVEST 94L

The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring a tropical wave (Invest-94L) that has been moving across the islands of the northern Caribbean over the past several days. It is located near Hispaniola as of Thursday evening.

This system currently has a high (90%) chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm as it moves west-northwest toward the Turks and Caicos and then the Bahamas over the next couple of days.

Though it is possible that we do have a tropical depression sometime tonight or on Friday as this system becomes more organized just north of Hispaniola. Any strengthening will be slow initially due to interactions with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. 

Once this system moves toward the Bahamas, it will likely begin to strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane over the weekend. There currently is a lot of uncertainty with the track and intensity forecast. However, we will start to get a better idea on those parameters over the next few days as this system develops a defined center of circulation. 

Many of our global and tropical computer model guidance is indicating that this system could have significant and meaningful impacts somewhere along the southeastern U.S. coast between Florida and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

This is due to a cold front that is moving into the southeastern U.S. right now. It will bring some showers and storms for tonight, Friday, and into the weekend. This cold front is expected to stall out across the region and as it does so, it is becoming more likely that it will help to pull Invest-94L toward the southeastern coast. 

It is becoming possible for us to have impacts of some magnitude in the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry from this system. The timing for any impacts would be on Monday and into the day Tuesday. We will have a better idea on Friday and into the weekend. This could be a wind, rain, flood, and storm surge event wherever it makes landfall next week.

Now is the time to review your hurricane plan just in case this system brings significant impacts to our area. 

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO

Tropical Storm Humberto is located about 440 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. It became stronger as of 5 p.m. EDT with sustained wind of now 60 mph. Wind gusts are now as high as 70 mph.

Humberto is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by Friday afternoon. The current intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Humberto to become a major category 3 hurricane over the weekend as it inches just west of Bermuda. It will begin to weaken by Tuesday. 

No significant impacts are expected to the east coast of the U.S. from Humberto at this time. However, higher surf is possible along the eastern seaboard.