Study Reveals Potential 15 Million Worker Shortfall by 2035 Due to Trump Immigration Policies

A recent study unveiled on Friday indicates that President Trump’s immigration policies could shrink the U.S. workforce by 15 million people within the next ten years.

According to the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), Trump’s approach to both illegal and legal immigration is expected to reduce the number of workers in the United States by 6.8 million by the year 2028, and by 15.7 million by 2035. This reduction could slash the annual economic growth rate by nearly one-third, ultimately impacting the standard of living across the nation.

Additionally, the study suggests that these immigration policies could significantly inflate the federal debt by $1.74 trillion and diminish the gross domestic product (GDP) by $12.1 trillion over the coming decade.

The NFAP analysis highlights several policy changes contributing to this outcome, including cuts in refugee admissions, the 2025 travel ban, the termination of Temporary Protected Status, and restrictions on humanitarian parole programs. The policies also impose limits on international students regarding work opportunities after graduation and introduce new rules, such as the anticipated public charge rule, to further restrict legal immigration.

The researchers also noted that their analysis does not account for the potential negative effects on productivity growth due to restrictions on U.S. companies’ access to skilled foreign workers through regulatory and administrative measures.

The Hill reached out to the White House for comment.

The Trump administration has set a goal of removing at least 1 million immigrants in the country illegally per year. The Labor Department recently warned that the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts could drive up food prices due to a dwindling workforce in the agriculture industry. 

Taxpayer funds are currently being used to bolster border and immigration enforcement, including the White House’s $45 billion investment to increase Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention capacity.

The NFAP said as expenditures rise, so will the country’s debt. 

“Increasing the federal debt will reduce living standards in the United States by leading to higher levels of taxation, inflation and interest rates than without such debt,” researchers wrote.

“Labor force growth is a crucial part of the economic growth that advances a country’s living standards and facilitates the financing of existing debts and obligations. With the U.S.-born population aging and growing at a slower rate, immigrants have become an essential part of American labor force growth,” they added.