Tracking tropical downpours in Tampa Bay: Here's when to expect rain this week
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TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — An area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico slowly drifts east toward Florida during the next few days.

While the system should remain relatively weak and unorganized, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 10% chance of developing tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next two days while the system is in the Gulf of Mexico. The chance for development increases slightly once it heads off Florida’s east coast and into the Atlantic Ocean.

Regardless of development, the system will impact our area with rainy conditions. The counterclockwise wind direction around the low is helping to increase the moisture across the state, so rain chances stay elevated.

While an isolated shower is possible around lunchtime Wednesday, there will be a round of downpours in the afternoon and evening. These storms may impact your evening commute, so make sure you have the umbrella ready. Some pockets of rain may bring 0.5″ (green) to 1″ (blue) of rain.

Rounds of downpours continue in the forecast for Thursday, Friday and Saturday as that low gradually heads east. It will not rain all day, but passing heavy downpours are possible.

During the entire event, the Tampa Bay area will experience widespread 1-2 inches of rain with some areas getting 3 inches. This is beneficial rain because we remain in a severe drought, especially for areas west of I-75.

Once the area of low pressure pulls away from Florida, rain chances drop significantly to just 30% Sunday and 20% Monday and Tuesday.

The system remains weak enough that overall wind gusts stay at 10-15 mph, except within downpours when gusts may reach 25-35mph. Stronger winds are expected after the system passes, and that will be a cool breeze early next week.

Depending on the exact track of the system, we may get treated to some lower humidity next week as well.

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