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Per The Hollywood Reporter, the first “Avatar” is the highest-grossing movie of all time, having grossed over $2.92 billion at the time of this writing. Unsurprisingly, there is a lot of excitement for the sequel, which is predicted to open to between $150 and $170 million. However, as the THR report highlighted, this is a conservative estimate, so it’s possible that the film could enjoy a better opening. By comparison, “Avatar” opened to $77 million, which is still impressive.
The numbers predicted for “Avatar: The Way of Water” make the movie seem like a surefire hit, and it needs to be in order to break even. While speaking to GQ, James Cameron revealed that the sequel cost a lot of money, describing it as the “worst business case in movie history.”
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For “Avatar: The Way of Water” to break even, Cameron said that it will need to come close to replicating the success of its predecessor. “You have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history,” Cameron said about the film’s box office goals. “That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”