Potential Government Shutdown May Postpone Social Security COLA Update

() The government shutdown won’t stop retirees from receiving their Social Security checks, but it could delay a highly anticipated announcement about next year’s benefits.

The cost-of-living-adjustment for 2026 is set to be announced this month, but the Social Security Administration needs September’s inflation data to finalize the change.

That’s a problem because the Bureau of Labor Statistics which produces monthly inflation reports has suspended operations during the shutdown, according to the Labor Department’s contingency plan.

“A delay of the CPI release during October of each year might have an impact on the Cost of
Living Adjustment announcement by the Social Security Administration,” the agency noted in the plan.

The key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15, giving lawmakers less than two weeks to reach a funding deal. If the data isn’t available, retirees may have to wait longer for the official COLA announcement.

Senators expect the shutdown to last at least until the middle of next week, though some fear it could stretch further. A partial shutdown during President Donald Trump’s first term lasted 35 days, but they’re typically much shorter.

reached out to the Social Security Administration regarding the potential delay, but did not receive an immediate response.

What will the Social Security COLA be for 2026?

The Social Security Administration adjusts benefits each year to keep pace with inflation a cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, for short.

The Senior Citizens League currently projects a 2.7% increase for 2026 slightly above this year’s 2.5% bump.

That would raise the average monthly benefit for retired workers by $54, from $2,008 to $2,062, the senior advocacy group said. But that’s not set in stone, since the final number depends on September inflation data.

Prices have been rising in recent months, with annual inflation climbing from 2.3% in April to 2.9% in August, partly driven by President Trump’s tariffs. A continued uptick could push the COLA slightly higher than current estimates.

The Social Security adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which can differ slightly from the CPI-U often cited in headlines. The government determines the COLA by comparing the average inflation rate from July to September with the same period a year earlier. 

Whatever the final figure, the increase will appear automatically in January 2026 checks.

Will Social Security checks still arrive during the shutdown?

Yes. Social Security benefits are funded through mandatory spending, so more than 70 million Americans will continue receiving payments on time, regardless of how long the shutdown lasts.

“Payments to all people who currently receive Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) will continue with no change in payment dates,” the SSA said Wednesday.

Local offices will remain open to the public but with reduced services. During the shutdown, consumers can still:

• Apply for benefits
• Request an appeal
• Change your address or direct deposit information
• Report a death
• Verify or change your citizenship status
• Replace a lost or missing Social Security payment
• Obtain a critical payment
• Change a representative payee
• Make a change in your living arrangement or income (SSI recipients only)
• Obtain a new or replacement Social Security card

The SSA said it won’t be able to provide the following services in person:

• Replace your Medicare card
• Issue a proof of income letter
• Update or correct earnings record

About 6,200 SSA employees are being furloughed, roughly 12% of the workforce, according to the agency’s contingency plan. Like those currently working without pay, they will receive back pay once funding is restored, per a 2019 law.