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A recent study, unveiled on Friday, predicts that President Trump’s immigration policies could shrink the U.S. workforce by 15 million over the next ten years.
The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) reported that the Trump administration’s stance on both illegal and legal immigration is expected to reduce the projected number of U.S. workers by 6.8 million by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035. This reduction could potentially slow the annual economic growth rate by nearly a third, adversely affecting American living standards.
According to the research group, these immigration policies will likely lead to a significant increase in federal debt by $1.74 trillion and a reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) by $12.1 trillion over the next decade.
The study highlights several policy changes, including cuts to refugee admissions, the 2025 travel ban, the termination of Temporary Protected Status and humanitarian parole programs, and restrictions on international students’ work opportunities post-graduation. Additionally, anticipated regulations such as a new public charge rule could further limit legal immigration.
The report also notes that the analysis does not account for the potential economic consequences of limiting U.S. companies’ access to highly skilled foreign professionals through regulatory changes, which could impede productivity growth.
The Hill reached out to the White House for comment.
The Trump administration has set a goal of removing at least 1 million immigrants in the country illegally per year. The Labor Department recently warned that the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts could drive up food prices due to a dwindling workforce in the agriculture industry.
Taxpayer funds are currently being used to bolster border and immigration enforcement, including the White House’s $45 billion investment to increase Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention capacity.
The NFAP said as expenditures rise, so will the country’s debt.
“Increasing the federal debt will reduce living standards in the United States by leading to higher levels of taxation, inflation and interest rates than without such debt,” researchers wrote.
“Labor force growth is a crucial part of the economic growth that advances a country’s living standards and facilitates the financing of existing debts and obligations. With the U.S.-born population aging and growing at a slower rate, immigrants have become an essential part of American labor force growth,” they added.