Trump’s Popularity with Young Male Voters Sees a Decline

Earlier this month, as voters cast their ballots in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City, they might have noticed something missing: the young men typically sporting red MAGA hats were nowhere to be seen.

Back in 2024, a remarkable surge of support from men in their 20s was pivotal in elevating President Donald Trump to the White House. These young men were a crucial component of the MAGA coalition he had assembled. However, this election cycle saw many of them either opting to stay home or, even more significantly, switching their allegiance.

This trend could signal a potential challenge for the Republican Party. Whoever steps into Trump’s shoes might find that the once-reliable support from the “manosphere” is no longer guaranteed.

In the last presidential race, just a year ago, Trump managed to edge out Kamala Harris among male voters aged 18 to 29, winning by a narrow 49 to 48 percent margin. Pollsters highlighted that this demographic was largely swayed by economic issues.

This represented an extraordinary 12-point swing from the previous election, marking the most significant shift among any demographic group.

But in the Virginia governor race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won young men by 17 points. In the New Jersey governor race, Democrat Mikie Sherrill did so by 14 points.

In New York, it was an avalanche as Zohran Mamdani won 67 percent of men under 30, compared to his rival Andrew Cuomo’s 26 percent. Only five percent voted Republican.

Over in California, 74 percent of young men voted for Proposition 50, a redistricting measure heavily backed by the Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom.

It was a striking turnaround – which some Republicans argued only reflected the fact that Trump himself was not on the ballot.

The decision of many young men in 2024 was to vote for Trump because they felt personally enthused by him.

However, other polling data shows a deeper concern for Republicans, revealing that the slump in the president’s own popularity among young men began almost immediately after he took office.

Eight months since his inauguration, the honeymoon looks to be over – and it is traceable largely to one issue: the cost of living.

John Della Volpe, a pollster for SocialSphere and a renowned expert on youth in politics, conducts a monthly survey of independent young men, asking them whether Trump is making their lives better.

In February, shortly after Trump was sworn in, it stood at 50 percent approval and 34 percent disapproval.

However, by October, Trump’s numbers had fallen to 31 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval.

That represented a precipitous 36-point swing among young male independents in just nine months.

Key to their growing disillusion was the affordability crisis. 

In New York, focus groups included young male voters who backed Trump in 2024, but abandoned his pick of Cuomo for Mamdani – who the president has called a communist.

One New York focus group member, dental student Matthew, 27, told Della Volpe his switch from voting someone Trump-backed to voting for the mayor elect was because of the ongoing difficulty of getting a job.

‘I think [Mamdani] is a better choice than people that are over 50 years old, 60 years old, where the last time they had to look for a job was when you’re looking at a newspaper circling ads,’ the desperate Gen Z voter said.

In Virginia and New Jersey, Spanberger and Sherill succeeded with young men by running on concrete economic issues – rent and grocery costs – rather than vague warnings about Trump being a threat to democracy, which featured heavily in 2024 Democratic campaigns.

‘For young men watching their rent climb while Trump governed like every other president they’d learned to distrust, that was enough to give Democrats another look,’ Della Volpe told the Daily Mail.

‘Nine months later, their rent was still $2,500 for a shoebox, their friend was still living in someone’s spare room at 29. The job market was still brutal. The timeline to [financial] stability was still impossibly long.’

Ever since losing young men in 2024, Democrats have been plotting how to win them back.

At the forefront is Newsom, who recently launched his own podcast available on YouTube, learning from the success of conservative media figures like Joe Rogan and the connection they made with the demographic in 2024.

There is some evidence it is having an impact.

One poll by the League of American Workers/TIPP in October had Newsom winning young men in a hypothetical 2028 matchup against Vice President JD Vance by 33 to 38 percent.

Meanwhile, in Maryland, Governor Wes Moore, 47, another potential Democratic contender in the 2028 presidential race, is also focusing on policies to win over young men, like boosting apprenticeships and bringing down incarceration rates for minor drug offenses.

According to a recent report by the Speaking with American Men group, young men under 30 feel they are ‘falling behind.’

‘[Young] men are overwhelmed by the cost of living, the instability of work and the distance between what Mamdani promised and what’s real,’ the report said.

‘Young men’s top concerns are inflation, affordability and housing. Pressure to provide hasn’t gone away, but the tools to meet it feel broken.’

The report highlighted that the media they are consuming is still overwhelmingly conservative.

More than 80 percent listen to podcasts and the most popular podcasters are Joe Rogan, Theo Von, Tucker Carlson Show and Ben Shapiro.

YouTube was by far their biggest source of news, followed distantly by X, podcasts and news websites.

But only 26 percent of men under 30 thought the economy was ‘good’ under Trump, and dissatisfaction was higher among young white men than black or Hispanic ones.

Democratic strategists are seeing the support being turned on its head with inflation still stubbornly high at 3 percent and Trump’s tariffs impacting prices.

According to a recent Economist/YouGov poll, the president’s standing with the under-30s (men and women) has fallen further and faster than it has with any other group.

In February, Trump was at 50 percent approval and 42 percent disapproval, but by October that was 20 and 55 percent, respectively.

On jobs and the economy, Trump’s approval rating among young people is now minus-22, and on inflation and prices minus-31.

Della Volpe, who conducted dozens of focus groups with young men this year, said, in early 2025 more thought Trump would have a positive impact on their lives, but that has now ‘flipped,’ with more believing he has had a harmful impact.

‘That’s mostly related to economic policy and impact,’ he told the Daily Mail. ‘They voted for Trump so they could be better providers for themselves, and also for the people they care about, that’s it.

‘Nine months into the term, they’re asking themselves, has Trump and his policies made it easier for me to provide for myself, for the people I care about? And the answer is no. I think they… cut him a fair amount of slack, they told me that it takes time to implement certain policies.’

Della Volpe said Trump’s approval declined within the demographic quickly after announcing the tariffs. The researcher said that was apparent in the recent elections.

‘I think a significant number of his supporters didn’t turn out, and among the young men who did, we could see that they obviously flipped back to where they were in 2020, which was supporting Democrats by 12, points.

‘I think with younger men, which is different than younger women, it’s not about party, it’s not about ideology. It’s about, “Do you hear me, and are you part of the establishment or outside?”‘

He said young men were ‘pragmatic’ and believed ‘there’s not a lot of evidence in their short lifetime that government has made a significant difference in their lives.’

A further challenge for the Republican Party is figuring out how to retain the support of young male voters in 2028 without Trump himself.

‘He made people feel a certain way, gave them a certain kind of energy, but you can’t just loan that out or pass that down,’ Della Volpe said.

‘I think Trump and the MAGA universe were really first to significantly invest in “the manosphere,” in digital and social, and gaming technologies and influence to extend his message beyond traditional channels.’

He said taking that ‘persona’ away ‘could lessen the advantage they have in communications.’

‘Things with [young men] move so quickly,’ Della Volpe added. ‘The other thing to consider, which too many people don’t, is that the people who vote in 2028, they’re 17 years old today. They’re in high school. And they’re watching this, and they’re saying, am I for or against what’s happening now? Therefore, based upon the answer to that question, it’s are you a Democrat or Republican?

‘That worked to Democrats’ advantage in the first Trump term, and it worked to Trump’s advantage in the Biden term because Biden was shown as as ineffectual and weak on many things that younger people cared about, and Trump took advantage of that.’