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A new analysis of Americans’ voter registration habits points to potential long-term trouble for the Democratic Party.
According to data analyzed by the New York Times, the number of people registered as Democrats has declined in every state that tracks voter affiliation by party, which includes 30 of the 50 states in the U.S. Read more here.
The remaining 20 states do not register voters by party.
This trend was consistent between swing states, red states, and blue states.
The New York Times notes that explicitly, ‘fewer and fewer Americans are choosing to be Democrats.’
The Times attributes Trump’s sweeping 2024 victory—including wins in every swing state and the national popular vote—to this very trend.
For veteran political activists and observers, this shift comes as no surprise.
In recent election cycles, states that have switched their allegiance from Democrat to Republican have typically seen an increase in voter registration for the GOP prior to actual electoral changes.
People fill out vote-by-mail ballots at the Orange County Supervisor of Elections office on October 17, 2024 in Orlando, Florida
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump is pictured participating in a roundtable discussion during the Latino Summit at Trump National Doral Golf Club on October 22, 2024, in Doral, Florida.
Florida, once the quintessential swing state—from the infamous 2000 Bush-Gore recount to the razor-thin Trump-Clinton contest in 2016—has trended solidly Republican over the past decade.
Republican gains with Hispanic and Latino voters have been pointed to as one reason for the shift.
A major milestone came in March, when Republican registrations surpassed Democrats in Miami-Dade County—a longtime Democratic stronghold and Florida’s most populous county. Republicans now hold 34 percent of registered voters there, edging out both Democrats (32 percent) and Independents (33 percent.)
These trends in voter registration and party loyalty suggest that political realignments in key states may be more durable than previously thought.
Evan Power, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, expressed in a statement to the Florida Phoenix that the flip was ‘a total repudiation of the Democrats’ failed agenda. Miami-Dade is no longer their safe haven — it’s the beating heart of the Republican revolution.’
Evan Power, Chair of the Republican Party of Florida since January 2024
Iowa is another state where Republicans have recently made major gains. After the 2018 midterm cycle, three of the state’s four congressional seats were held by Democrats.
Republicans subsequently made voter registration a top priority in the 2020 presidential election, and made gains not only in swing seats but statewide before Trump’s second victory in the state.
After the 2020 election, Republicans held three of the four congressional seats in the state and flipped the fourth into their column after the 2022 midterm election.
Conservative activist Scott Presler is the Founder and Executive Director of Early Vote Action and has travelled across the country registering voters in swing states and districts for the past half-decade. Presler told the Daily Mail that he often gets asked if registering more GOP voters in a location means an automatic win.
He points to his efforts in flipping Bucks County, Pennsylvania for Trump last year as one indication that the proof is in the pudding.
Scott Presler registering voter in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
The county is one specifically mentioned in the New York Times analysis, as Republicans flipped the voter registration there last summer in part due to Presler’s activism ahead of Trump’s win in November.
The Daily Mail spoke to Presler via a phone call while he was back in Pennsylvania, this time as part of an effort to flip the swingiest of all swing counties, Erie County, which is ‘5,900 voters away from flipping blue to red.’
Presler said that recent conversations with individuals he’s gotten to change their party registration indicate that the data analyzed by the New York Times is ’emblematic of the fact that voters overwhelmingly approve of Trump’s policies.’
While both parties have had their fair share of infighting, Democrats seem to be losing the most in the eyes of voters. After Trump’s decisive defeat of Kamala Harris last year, the party is searching for a new leader.
The likes of California Governor Gavin Newsom and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy are putting themselves forward as figureheads of the anti-Trump resistance, but looking at registration numbers, no one has yet broken through to the average voter to get them to switch back into the Democratic column.
Democrat strategist and DNC member Maria Cardona told the New York Times that her party ‘fell asleep at the switch’ also adding that young Hispanic and Latino voters are no longer default supporters of her party.