With Iranian influence waning in the Middle East, the Iraqi government wants armed groups, including factions within the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), to lay down their arms and join the state security forces or integrate into the state-recognized Popular Mobilization Forces.

Iraq’s foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, recently told Reuters that armed groups operating inside Iraq and outside state control are unacceptable.

“Many political leaders, many political parties started to raise a discussion, and I hope that we can convince the leaders of these groups to lay down their arms, and then to be part of the armed forces under the responsibility of the government,” Hussein told Reuters. 

Rudolf pointed out that although Iranian proxies have been significantly weakened since Oct. 7, pressure has intensified in light of reports suggesting Israel could retaliate against Iranian groups inside Iraq. 

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends a ceremony in Baghdad, Iraq, on Jan. 9, 2024.

Many observers of the region think Iraq’s attempt to rein in armed factions at this moment is a sign of Iran’s diminished position in the region.

“The fact that major security sector reform in respect to the Popular Mobilization Forces is being conducted at this time is representative of Iran’s weakened role in the country and an imperative amongst more moderate forces, as well as the U.S., to seize on this and create momentum,” Caroline Rose, a senior analyst and head of the Power Vacuums Program at the New Lines Institute, told Fox News Digital.

Elections in Iraq are scheduled for this fall, and Prime Minister Sudani is attempting to negotiate an acceptable form of bilateral security cooperation with the U.S., including the status of U.S. forces inside the country. The U.S. currently has about 2,500 troops serving in Iraq as part of the anti-ISIS Operation Inherent Resolve effort.

Observers of the region agreed that if Iraq is unable to demonstrate its ability to rein in rogue groups conducting armed operations against the prime minister, sustaining security cooperation with the United States, especially under President Donald Trump, could be impossible.