Members of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) ride on a pickup truck as they secure the evacuation of non-essential UN staff, following the fight between M23 rebels and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, in Goma, North Kivu province, Democratic Republic of Congo, on January 25, 2025. (Reuters/Arlette Bashizi TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

Rubin continued, “What we’ve had for too long is that old definition of insanity: doing the same thing repeatedly, but expecting different results. There’s been two Congo wars, and if we try to apply the same band-aid to a sucking chest wound this time, there will be a third.”

The blame should rest not on Rwanda, Rubin believes, but on the DRC. “The narrative that the DRC is the victim and Rwanda and Uganda aggressors is tired. The problem is Kinshasa. If Tshisekedi (Felix Tshisekedi, DRC President) can stop armed groups in the south, he can do so in the east as well. He turned to ethnic incitement to distract from incompetent government; that never ends well.”

Rubin added that “the arguments about Rwanda looting the region are not valid. Businessmen in North Kivu, are blunt: Rwanda and Uganda charge less in customs duties than Kinshasa extracts in taxes. Kinshasa cries wolf because Kigali outcompetes them. If Kinshasa wanted businessmen to turn to them, try lowering taxes and building plants to turn raw materials into something with higher sale value.”

China and Russia stand on the sidelines, waiting to choose who they dance with to get the DRC’s minerals. China has spoken out against the M23. It threatens their mining interests in the country. Additionally, soldiers from Russia’s Africa Corps, the former Wagner Group’s private army of mercenaries, have been seen in Goma, propping up the DRC’s soldiers against the M23. 

Cronje told Fox News Digital Russia and China are poised to potentially support the winner, saying “the geostrategic importance of the region is such that all global powers have an interest in influencing the balance of power in eastern DRC either directly or indirectly.”