Voters are heading to the polls today for two crucial state byelections in Victoria that could provide a clue to the next federal government, with the Liberals threatening to flip the historically Labor seat of Werribee and the Greens seat of Prahran.

Former treasurer Tim Pallas’ resignation from politics triggered the by-election in the outer western suburb of Werribee, where Labor candidate John Lister hopes to retain the seat strongly held by the party since 1976.

Lister said he wants to make a difference and fight for investments for Werribee while Liberal candidate Steve Murphy claims the only way for the region to have new outcomes was to throw Labor out.

In the last state election, Pallas won the seat with 45.36 per cent of the primary vote.

Over in the inner-city suburb of Prahran, Greens candidate Angelica Di Camillo is vying to maintain the seat her party has held since 2014 against Liberal candidate Rachel Westaway.

Di Camillo is promising to bring Queensland’s highly popular 50-cent public transport fares to Victoria, make unlimited rent increases illegal and deliver climate ambition.

The Liberal party points to Di Camillo having no history of local involvement, having recently moved to the area, adding that their candidate Rachel Westaway has real-life experience and is ready to serve.

Labor has not put up a candidate for the seat.

The by-election is being held due to the resignation of former Prahran MP Sam Hibbins, who won in 2022 with 36.40 per cent of the primary vote, over an affair with a staffer. 

Tony Barry, communications director at RedBridge, a research and polling company, said the Greens have a tough fight with preferences against them.

The party may need to secure a 42 to 43 per cent primary vote.

“Hanging over that is the fact that the former Greens MP for that seat left in highly controversial, very unsavoury circumstances,” he said.

How much Labor will need for the seat of Werribee is harder to say, according to Barry, as there are more candidates from different parties running.

RedBridge’s latest polling figures for Victoria reveal the Liberal Party is ahead on the two-party preferred basis with 51 per cent compared to Labor’s 49 per cent at state level.

Barry believes the Liberals could walk away with both seats after today’s by-elections.

“Labor’s primary vote is collapsing because of a perceived lack of outcomes and concerns about the state of the economy and the personal financial insecurity that comes from that,” he said.

The results of today’s by-elections will be a crucial test for Premier Jacinta Allan, who Barry said has failed to differentiate herself from her predecessor Daniel Andrews, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ahead of this year’s federal election.

Albanese, who has still not announced the date of the federal election, dropped to 34 per cent as the preferred prime minister in the latest January Resolve poll compared to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s 39 per cent.

“You always want to have momentum and, in politics, you’re either applying pressure or you’re absorbing pressure and if the Allan government loses Werribee, then they’ll be under pressure, which is never a great place to be in terms of the federal election,” Barry said.

“A loss in Werribee would confirm, more than the public polling, that the Labor brand has significant brand damage in Victoria which means federal Labor in Victoria might really struggle in some seats where they have historically not such as Bruce and Isaacs.

“So if Werribee survives, then it would give Labor some hope that they can scrape through with the next election, but if it’s a very significant swing against them in the double digits then it would suggest that they are in the final death throws.”

So far, more than 13,400 residents across both the Werribee and Prahran districts have cast their early votes.

Voting is open from 8am to 6pm today, with counting to begin shortly after.