Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 9 pm ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

Tease: Join us for a BIG announcement tonight in the 9 p.m. hour – I am sworn to secrecy until then. 

Wild weekend: It’s winter, so no golf, and President Trump is spending the weekend at the White House – buckle up for news! 

Makes sense: Turns out Democrats want to have kids when a Democrat occupies the White House – that makes sense.

• Is the same true for Republicans? We’ll see.
• Watch tonight: Data science professor and my sister, Liberty Vittert Capito, joins with a breakdown of the numbers.

Doomsday Fish: For all of you who think the world is ending:

• The stock market just crashed 750 points. 
• We’ve had multiple significant plane crashes in the past month.
• Eggs cost $8 per dozen.
  • And the so-called “Doomsday Fish” just surfaced yikes! 

Can’t make it up: Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass fired the LA fire chief.

• Yes, the same fire chief who admitted the obvious: Bass’ budget cuts hurt the department.
• Geography: Bass was in Ghana for the start of the fires – she left after tweeting out dire warnings.
• The only thing worse than terrible leadership is then firing staff for your own failures. 
• And to think she was on Joe Biden’s short list for vice president. 

GOP Party Breaking

🪦 A month in, “In Trump we trust” is dead – or at least on life support.  

• President Trump forced through his Cabinet – we told you that would only increase his control over the Republican Party, and it did. 
  • To that point, Matt Lewis headlines in The Hill, “Conservatism used to mean something. Now it’s just whatever Trump says.”
    • That is the kind of political muscle every president – of both parties – has dreamed of since time began. 
  • But now, Trump’s squandering it by calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and parroting Vladimir Putin’s talking point that Ukraine started the war.
    • Duh! Nobody should be surprised by this.
      • Trump’s “negotiating tactics” are well known, and he has some VERY legitimate gripes with Zelenskyy.
        • Axios lays out the chain of events between Trump and Zelenskyy here – I’d be angry too. 
• Personal privilege: Zelenskyy believes his own press clippings and thinks of himself as a modern-day Winston Churchill.
  • Thus, he keeps overplaying his hand – badly – to the point where even Team Biden got rightly upset with him a few years back.
    • Unsurprisingly, Team Biden missed the opportunity to pressure Zelenskyy for a ceasefire.  
  • Erick Erickson laid out the best analysis of how Team Trump – and associated Republicans –view Ukraine.
    • Trigger warning: Erickson headlines, “This Is Wrong.”
• Think what you want about Ukraine – we’ve litigated that over and over and over. 

4D chess: In his role as vice president and explainer in chief, JD Vance lays out a cogent and thoughtful explanation of Trump’s strategy.

• Thought bubble: My god, Vance is good.
  • Second thought bubble: When you are explaining, you are losing. 

The willingness of Republicans to publicly break with Trump is a problem for Trump.

• Republicans hold razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate – and the media loves nothing more than exploiting them.
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Trump speaks for himself, and there is “no question” that Russia is the “aggressor here.”
  • Maine Sen. Susan Collins said, “I do not agree that President Zelenskyy is to blame in any way.”
  • South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham also pushed back, saying, “When it comes to blame for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I blame Putin above all others.”
  • Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski said she “would certainly never refer to President Zelenskyy as a dictator.”
• And it’s not just the anti-Trump media: Brian Kilmeade of Fox News continues to hammer away at Trump over Ukraine – that takes guts. A hat-tip to Kilmeade. 

Be fair: Nuance in foreign affairs isn’t exactly Trump’s strong suit, and his unpredictability proved effective in his first term.

• BUT, and this is a BIG BUT: Creating situations where Republicans of good faith and strong moral compass break with you for parroting Putin’s talking points is a completely unforced error. 

Zoom out: Foreign policy doesn’t live in a vacuum – what happens with Russia and Ukraine affects the rest of the world. 

• Tomorrow: Hamas says they will release six more Israeli hostages – for 602 Palestinians.
  • But that is far less than “all the hostages” Trump demanded the return of, threatening to unleash “all hell” on Hamas if they were not returned.

Be fair: We trashed former Presidents Biden and Obama for making such threats and not backing them up.

• We said it makes America look weak – we were right.
• Trump threatened Hamas and didn’t back it up.
• That’s why there was a coffin parade in Gaza with the bodies of hostages.
• He needs to start backing his claims up, or it’s not going to matter what he says.

Enduring truth: Words matter in foreign policy, especially when they come from the president of the United States. 

Crying Hitler

The Associated Press just sued Trump officials over their access to Air Force One and the Oval Office.

• They claim three Trump officials are violating their First and Fifth Amendment rights.
• Background: Traditionally, the AP got a permanent spot in the press “pool.”
  • The pool is the 13 or so journalists with close access to the president, a seat on Air Force One ,and access to the Oval Office for press events.
  • For example, the TV networks rotate pool duty each day.

• The White House said they would switch the AP seat to a rotating seat for other journalists after the AP refused to change the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America.” 
• Be fair: It’s petty, by both The Associated Press and White House.

HOGWASH: There is no First Amendment right to the Oval Office or AF1 – they are cheapening the First Amendment.

• Zoom out: Nothing better highlights the problem for Washington’s elite, credential, establishment class than this lawsuit.
  • When everything Trump does is illegal, a threat to democracy, the end of the republic, racist, fascist, bigoted, Nazi-like, king-like – then nothing is. 

Best Advice 💭: Ruy Teixeira writes in the Liberal Patriot, “One Simple Question for Democrats.”

• “What would the working class say (WWWCS)? Let me explain.”
• “The WWWCS test is not so hard to do but it does entail getting outside of the liberal college-educated bubble so many Democrats live within, particularly as experienced on social media, in activist circles and within advocacy, nonprofit, media and academic institutions.”
  • See above: The working class of America couldn’t CARE LESS about the Associated Press’ seat on Air Force One.
  • In fact, given the Associated Press’ long history of embracing limousine liberal talking points and vocabulary, most working-class Americans probably like the AP losing its seat.
• The “WWWCS” test would help “The View’s” Sunny Hostin and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, as well.