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Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter

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Business & Economy

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The Big Story

Trump says tariffs will finally take effect tomorrow

The president told reporters Monday that his 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods will be implemented Tuesday, no matter what either nation does to avoid them.

“The tariffs, they’re all set. They go into effect tomorrow,” he said, adding there’s “no room left for Mexico or Canada” to make a deal before midnight.

Trump had warned last week that the tariffs will go forward after he delayed them for a month following conversations with the Canadian and Mexican leaders, during which they agreed to action to address the flow of drugs at the border.

The president also announced that reciprocal tariffs will start April 2, which will cover imports from all nations that levy import taxes on U.S. goods.

“So, what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs,” Trump said Monday.

The stock market took a hit after Trump’s announcements on tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 700 points after Trump’s announcement.

Read the full report at TheHill.com.

Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter, I’m Sylvan Lane — covering the intersection of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue.

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Essential Reads

Key business and economic news with implications this week and beyond:

O’Malley: DOGE cuts could soon trigger Social Security system ‘collapse’

Martin O’Malley, the former commissioner of the Social Security Administration (SSA), said Monday the recent cuts made by tech billionaire Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) at the agency could result in the “collapse” of the Social Security system “within the next 30 to 90 days.”

Full Story

OPEC+ will start long-delayed oil production hike

A group of oil-producing countries known as OPEC+ will proceed with a long-delayed hike in oil production.

Full Story

TSMC will invest $100B in US chip manufacturing

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) plans to invest $100 billion to build chip manufacturing plants in the U.S., President Trump announced Monday.

Full Story

Tax Watch

Welcome to Tax Watch, a new feature in The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter focused on the fight over tax reform and the push to extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts this year.

Tariffs could partially offset cost of tax cuts

Trump’s decision to go forward with new tariffs comes after the House passed a budget resolution in February for a tax cut and spending bill that could add trillions to the deficit — as much as $5.1 trillion over the next decade, according to a projection by the University of Pennsylvania.

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico could effectively contribute to offsetting some of those costs — which center on an extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) — though they probably won’t factor into official estimates if they’re levied through administrative rather than congressional actions.

“An earlier implementation of tariffs could meaningfully lower the projected costs of the TCJA, potentially allowing for larger tax cuts than were included in our baseline, which would, in turn, offset some of the drag from the trade war,” Brett Ryan and other Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a Sunday to investors.

— Tobias Burns

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COMING UP

The Hill’s Evening Report breaks down the day’s big political stories and looks ahead to tomorrow. Click here to sign up & get it in your inbox

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The Ticker

Upcoming news themes and events we’re watching:

President Trump delivers an address to a Joint Session of Congress on Tuesday night.

In Other News

Branch out with more stories from the day:

Dow drops nearly 650 points on worries that Trump’s latest tariffs will slow the economy more

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks tumbled Monday and wiped out even more of their gains since President …

Full Story

Good to Know

Business and economic news we’ve flagged from other outlets:

2 Troubled Carmakers, Nissan and Stellantis, Could Be Hit Hardest by Tariffs (NYT)
Why bitcoin bulls aren’t happy about Trump’s plans for something they’ve long wanted: a crypto reserve’ (MarketWatch)
This boba chain you’ve never heard of has more outlets than McDonald’s (CNN)

What Others are Reading

Top stories on The Hill right now:

Canadian premier says he will cut off electricity exports to US ‘with a smile on my face’

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Monday he is prepared to cut off electricity exports to the U.S. if President Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods go through. Read more

Bondi says she was misled on Epstein documents

Attorney General Pam Bondi was duped into thinking she had all the files related to investigations into disgraced financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, she told Fox News host Mark Levin over the weekend while defending Thursday’s widely mocked document dump. Read more