The BoM expects Alfred will cross the south-east Queensland coast later this week, bringing significant wind, rain and coastal hazard impacts.

Here’s what we know — and how it could develop in the coming days.

When and where Alfred is likely to make landfall

Alfred is forecast to make landfall somewhere between the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coasts on Thursday.

A volunteer marine rescue boat inspects the Seaway on the Gold Coast. Source: AAP / Jono Searle

“That means we’re likely to see the strongest impacts close to those areas, or to the south, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds generally wrap around that southern flank of a tropical cyclone,” the spokesperson said.

Dr Liz Ritchie-Tyo, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Monash University, said “large uncertainty” remains over the actual landfall position.

Why is Alfred headed toward the coast?

“A tropical coast that moves far enough south — like Alfred — is picked up by this westerly midlatitude flow and is steered towards the east out over the Pacific Ocean,” she said.

But once the trough has passed, a “high-pressure ridge” will build and steer Alfred back towards the coast.

Tropical cyclones ‘can still track further south’

“While the probability is lower, the risk — which is probability multiplied by consequence — is much greater.”

“These hazards occurring in densely populated areas like Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast and northern NSW are of significant concern.”

Council workers help residents in Burleigh collect sandbags on the Gold Coast. Source: AAP / Jono Searle

What are authorities saying?

— With additional reporting from Alexandra Jones and the Australian Associated Press