Tropical Storm Alfred: What to anticipate today, tomorrow, and over the weekend

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While Tropical Cyclone Alfred has slowed down, its impact is still estimated to be potentially life-threatening.

The category two cyclone is set to hit south-east Queensland and northern NSW’s coastlines with damaging winds, flash flooding, and dangerous storm tides predicted.

The latest Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) updates estimate the cyclone will hit early Saturday morning.

Here’s the latest on when Cyclone Alfred will cross the coastline and what you can expect today, tomorrow, and this weekend.

When will Cyclone Alfred hit?

It’s estimated that Cyclone Alfred will hit the coastline about a day later than originally forecast, and is expected to cross the coast very early Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta.

The BoM’s latest update has pushed the cyclone’s arrival back by about a day, with original estimations saying it would hit the coast overnight on Thursday and into Friday morning.

“Alfred is currently category 2 and is expected to remain of similar intensity until the centre starts to interact with the coast and Islands. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast very early Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta.,” the BoM advised.

The areas affected in the latest update include Double Island Point in Queensland to Grafton in NSW, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay and Ballina, but excluding Grafton.

The latest BoM track map has Alfred making landfill north of Brisbane as a category one cyclone.

The latest predicted path of Cyclone Alfred Credit: Bureau of Meteorology

How severe will Cyclone Alfred be?

While Alfred’s crossing onto land may arrive later than previously forecast, the warnings about its severity remain, federal Emergency Management Minister Jenny McAllister said.

She told ABC News Breakfast: “We have been really clear from the outset that there was some uncertainty about the timing of this event and, indeed, the strength of it. But the modelling before us indicates that we can still expect Tropical Cyclone Alfred to cross land and all of the advice at the moment is that we continue to expect a Category 2 cyclone.”

Category two cyclones have what the BoM describe as destructive winds, which may cause damage to homes and buildings and carry a risk of power outages.

It could cause significant damage to signs, trees, caravans and small boats, as well as heavy crop damage.

Category two cyclones have a maximum mean wind speed of between 89 and 117 km/h. The strongest gusts can reach between 125 and 164 km/h.

But the ranking doesn’t take into account the severe flood risk that comes with heavy rain and storm surges, which could be incredibly destructive.

“All of our advice essentially to communities remains the same — this is a significant weather system,” McAllister said. “There are preparations that we need you to undertake now and it is a time when we need you to take care of your friends and families and listen to the guidance from authorities.

“If anything, what I’d say to communities today is that the uncertainty about the window at which the cyclone will cross remains. We do need people to be alert, to be listening to emergency broadcasts, to be checking the apps, and just keeping themselves informed of the risks that might confront them over the course of the week.”

What can people expect each day?

Things are changing quickly in south-east Queensland and northern NSW.

Based on current BoM estimations, this is what you might expect each day:

Thursday

By Thursday night, coastal communities on the Gold Coast and northern NSW may begin to feel the effects of the cyclone. Brisbane could experience very strong winds by Thursday evening, while intense, heavy rainfall will likely batter the coast.

Friday

On Friday, expect an increase in winds strong enough to topple trees and cause minor house damage.

Rain may become torrential, with authorities predicting between 300 to 400mm in the next 24 hours.

Saturday

Alfred is expected to cross onto land on early Saturday morning, according to the most recent BoM projections.

When the core reaches land, wind speeds could peak at 155km/h, strong enough to cause roof damage, bring down large trees, and destroy crops.

Rainfall will also peak on Friday, with 250mm expected within six hours.

It’s enough rain to trigger life-threatening flash flooding, with 400mm expected over the 24-hour period.

You can also expect a dangerous storm tide and damaging surf and coastal conditions, with coastal flooding from high tides set to be significant if landfall coincides with high tide.

Abnormally high tides will likely cause minor flooding of coastal low-lying areas between Double Island Point and Grafton, particularly between Friday morning and early Saturday morning.

Sunday

Even after Alfred passes, its damage will be felt. You can still expect heavy rain, which will likely spread down through NSW and possibly northern Victoria.

This rain is set to place even more pressure on cyclone-affected parts of the coast, with flooding expected.