Big Short investor reveals why Trump will win global tariff trade war
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Famed investor Steve Eisman believes that President Trump’s controversial tariff policy could still benefit the United States, amidst concerns about market downturns and the possibility of a global recession.

Eisman, known for his activities during the 2008 market crash featured in The Big Short, suggested that Trump might achieve his objectives through the tariffs.

‘The reason why cooler heads will prevail is that, again, in a trade war, everybody will suffer; the US will suffer the least,’ he said Tuesday.

‘If reasonable heads prevail, Trump will get pretty much what he wants.’ 

He pointed out that only 11 percent of the United States’ GDP comes from exports, contrasting it with the European Union, where exports account for 30 percent, and for Mexico and Canada, the figure goes up to 35 percent.

‘Those two countries hold no cards,’ he said, speaking of America’s two closest neighbors.

He expects foreign nationals will do whatever it takes to strike an agreement with the Trump administration to avoid economic devastation in the coming months.

Eisman said Canada and Mexico in particular should be coming to Trump to ‘basically beg and say we’ll do what you want’ given their financial positions.

But he accepted that there are politically-driven factors he can’t predict which could prevent global leaders from taking an approach that is now in their best interests.

‘If everyone is rational they’ll lower their barriers,’ he said. ‘That doesn’t mean everybody is rational. Some politicians might think if we give in we’re going to lose our jobs.’

Eisman also tried to rationalize Trump’s thought process behind the tariffs, which have left many other critics and voters scratching their heads.

‘I think [he] is taking the attitude that free trade is great, but GDP isn’t just a number – it’s people.

‘There are whole towns that have suffered terribly,’ Eisman noted, adding that it appears Trump wants to ‘reorder it.’ 

And he doubts everyday voters who are living pay check to pay check are taking much stock of the market crashes or concerns of billionaires.

‘There’s the people in the markets who are upset they’ve lost money,’ he said. ‘I’m not gonna kid you, I’m one of those people. I’ve lost plenty.

‘But then there is everyone else in this country who lost their jobs in their towns, they’re cheering. So who voted for the president? They did.’

Eisman himself has experience dealing with market crashes. Back in 2007, he bet against subprime mortgages and collateralized debt obligations.

When the market crashed, he cashed in enormously, reportedly earning a whopping $1billion.

In Hollywood blockbuster The Big Short, his name was changed to Mark Baum and certain elements of his story were modified, but his financial success during turmoil was accurately portrayed by Steve Carell.

‘Everybody in the stock market went to college and everyone who went to college took Econ 101 and had it drummed into their heads that trade wars are bad,’ Eisman said days earlier.

‘Trade good, tariffs bad, trade war terrible… Now you’ve got a president of the United States who doesn’t seem to accept that paradigm… and people find it jarring.’

Eisman noted that people ‘are almost in hysterics’ over the tariffs, even though Trump was elected with a campaign pledge to bring about sweeping reform. 

‘You can agree with President Trump or you can disagree with him, one thing I find admirable about him is that he is one of the few politicians in my lifetime who does exactly what he says he’s going to do,’ Eisman said.

‘He’s told you for years he’s going to do it, and now he’s gone and done it and everyone is shocked.’ 

Eisman’s reassurance comes as Trump doubled down on his shock announcement he would place a 104 percent tariff on China and revealed he would soon be tariffing pharmaceuticals too. 

‘We’re going to tariff our pharmaceuticals and once we do that they’re going to come rushing back into our country because we’re the big market,’ Trump said at the National Republican Congressional Committee’s President’s Dinner on Tuesday night.

‘So we’re going to be announcing very shortly a major tariff on pharmaceuticals and when they hear that, they will leave China, they will leave other places because they have to – most of their product is sold here and they’re going to be opening up their plants all over our country.’

Trump’s reaffirmed commitment to tariffs comes after the Dow ended more than 300 points down. 

The president admitted that the stock market dropping is not ideal but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.

Overall the tariff-related market drop amounted to more than 4,500 points. 

The stock market briefly rallied Tuesday when it appeared Trump could put a pause on his tariffs going into effect, but the White House has since indicated that’s not going to happen. 

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