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We asked experts how the latest economic ructions could impact house prices — and who’s most likely to benefit or lose out.
Rate cuts would matter more than tariffs
“If we do see interest rates coming down potentially 50 basis points (0.5 per cent) in May and maybe another 100 basis points (1 per cent) by the end of the year, it may be a positive factor for housing markets,” Lawless said.
Lawless adds that any interest rate cuts won’t meaningfully change housing affordability, but it may boost confidence.
Jobs are the real anchor
“Labour market is the key for house prices,” he said. “If you don’t see a substantial deterioration in the labour market, then house prices should be okay.”
“Australians are unlikely to just abandon their homes,” he adds. “They wear the debt. If you have your job, you keep making repayments.”
Prices may keep rising — but not fast
In short, rate cuts could support the market, but uncertainty might keep buyers cautious — especially those on the edge of affordability.

Australia’s property market has already lifted off the back of the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut. Source: SBS News
, its first since 2020, has coincided with a lift in the housing market.
“The fact that house affordability is quite stretched will naturally just keep a bit of a ceiling on how high prices can go.”
Who wins and who loses?
Hartigan agrees. “It’s probably going to be the people who already own homes, or people who are looking to just get in now and they have the cash.”