“Probably there have been a lot of discussions going on already, maybe even since Francis first became pope, but certainly over the last 12 months or so when it’s been unfortunately quite clear that his health had been failing,” Pattenden, who divides his time between Melbourne and Oxford, told SBS Italian. 

“The difficulty we have in decoding what goes on in the Vatican is that the rhetoric of it is all spiritual, whilst we know that there is a political dimension … but everybody tries to pretend that it’s not there and so that gap leaves a lot of space for interpretation,” Pattenden explained. 

What happens when a pope dies?

The body will be prepared for display in St Peter’s Basilica, in anticipation of the funeral which will take place three to four days later. 

The process of selecting a new pope is shrouded in secrecy. Credit: AAP

Cardinals will oversee church affairs during that time and will make preparations for the conclave, which should start between 15 and 20 days after the pope’s death. 

“So we would expect to have a new pope about three to four weeks at most after the death or the resignation of the incumbent one.” 

Locked in: The conclave

“And that’s in order to make it much more difficult for anyone to go back on their word and say ‘well, actually I didn’t really mean it, we should keep voting’,” Pattenden said, pointing out that today the process is fairly streamlined. 

“I think the Catholic Church would lack a great deal of credibility if we were all waiting for two, three weeks and the cardinals still couldn’t reach a consensus,” he said. 

Black smoke, white smoke

It dates from the 19th century, and its origin stems from the simple fact that the cardinals needed to burn their ballot papers after each vote to make it impossible for anyone to find out who they had voted for. 

A cardinal will appear on the balcony, and he’ll announce: “Habemus Papam, we have a pope.” 

The ‘papable’ candidates

At the moment, three names stand out, he said. 

Vatican’s Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin delivers his blessing during the Rosary prayer for the health of Pope Francis. Credit: Antonio Masiello/Getty Images

The insider: Cardinal Secretary of State, Pietro Parolin, from Italy, who is the most senior Vatican bureaucrat and diplomat after Francis himself. “Historically, people in that role have become pope, most recently and famously Pope Pius XII in 1939. On the other hand, those people tend to be kind of tainted with the problems and the enmities of the previous pontificate, so that would be held against him.” 

Pope Francis (right) and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (left) during a general audience in St Peter’s square. Credit: Archivio Grzegorz Galazka/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images

The ‘Asian Francis’: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, who is sometimes described as the “Asian Francis”. “He’s very charismatic, but he’s also perhaps a little bit young at 67. He might well have a 25-year, 30-year pontificate and that will be weighed against him.” 

Cardinal Robert Sarah at the Vatican. Source: ABACA / Vandeville Eric

The ‘Pope from the global south’: Cardinal Robert Sarah, from Guinea, who’s 79 years old. “His problem is that he’s seen as very conservative, and Francis has promoted a great deal of a very large number of liberal cardinals over the last 10 years who may not find him suitable.”