Canadian Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is projected to lose the parliamentary seat he has held for more than 20 years in a stunning defeat to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy.

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), a state-owned outlet, projected the loss on Tuesday morning following Monday’s federal election. However, Elections Canada’s decision to pause the counting of special ballots means it remains unclear whether the Liberals, led by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, will walk away with a minority or majority mandate.

Conservative Party of Canada’s leader Pierre Poilievre looks on at his election night headquarters in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on April 29, 2025. (REUTERS/Amber Bracken)

Poilievre’s loss comes after a major turn in the polls. At one point, it appeared likely that he would succeed former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The conservative leader seems to have failed in his effort to make the election a referendum on the controversial former prime minister, whose popularity declined toward the end of his time in office.

People prepare to vote at a polling station in Ottawa, Canada, on April 28, 2025.  (Min Chen/Xinhua via Getty Images)

In late 2024, just before Trudeau’s resignation, Poilievre was up 25 points over the unpopular then-prime minister, according to Politico. However, Trump’s tariffs and comments about making Canada the 51st state took over the Great White North’s election cycle, likely fueling Carney and the Liberals’ victory.