Assessing the Marginality of Your Constituency: Important Electoral Districts to Monitor During the Election

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If you are living in an area that has become a corflute battleground, with images of local candidates of various colours on every second corner, then it’s likely you are living in a marginal seat.

These seats are often the target of political activity because changing the minds of just a few hundred or thousand residents could swing the results in favour of the opposite party.

For example, in Bennelong in Sydney’s north-west, just 1,954 votes in the two-candidate preferred count resulted in Labor claiming victory in 2022.

Thanks to a redistribution, Shaun Ratcliff, a political scientist from research firm Accent Research, said the seat is now notionally Liberal — on a 0.04 per cent margin — which will make it a challenge for Labor to retain.

“Certainly the seat could go either way,” he told SBS News.

But it’s not just the slim margin that makes the electorate interesting.

Ratcliff also points to Bennelong’s diverse population. It includes reasonably affluent areas such as Hunters Hill — the waterfront suburb actor Cate Blanchett once called home — but also many students who attend the local Macquarie University.

In addition, the electorate has a large multicultural population, with around one in five voters reporting Chinese ancestry.

Simon Welsh, director of research and reputation at pollster Redbridge Group, said if Labor retains Bennelong — along with other marginal Sydney seats such as Reid and even Parramatta — it will be because of younger, more educated and diverse voters.

Welsh will also be watching Melbourne seats like Menzies and Deakin, where a similar demographic may result in votes shifting from Liberal to Labor.

Welsh said other seats to watch where Labor’s vote could be in trouble are those in more economically stressed areas of Victoria, such as Hawke, Gorton and McEwen.

Both Hawke and Gorton are safe Labor seats, but the retirement of Brendan O’Connor in Gorton, combined with rising cost of living pressures, may bring these factors into play.

“Regional NSW also looks like it could be a problem for Labor, including seats such as Hunter and down the coast to Gilmore,” Welsh said.

What is a marginal seat?

The Australian Electoral Commission categorises marginal seats as electorates held with a margin of less than 6 per cent.

You can check whether your seat is considered marginal by searching for your electorate or entering your address in the interactive map below.

But experts generally identify specific key seats using analysis of polling and other factors.

Key seats to watch on election night

Redbridge has identified 20 key seats that could prove to be interesting contests between Labor and the Coalition, as well as other seats where independents and Greens candidates will be strong contenders.

A table showing key seats experts are watching between Labor and the Coalition.

Key contests between Labor and the Coalition that experts will be watching on election night. Source: SBS News

Other seats where independents or Greens could be elected include:

Coalition facing off against independents in Kooyong, Goldstein, Curtin, Mackellar, Calare, Cowper, Monash and Wannon.
Labor is facing an independent in Fowler.
Labor is facing a Greens candidate in Wills.
Three-cornered contest between Labor, Coalition and the Greens in Brisbane, Ryan and Macnamara.

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