LABOUR’S promise to “smash the gangs” will not see Channel migrant numbers fall until at least next year.

Measures to break the route “up stream” by tackling smugglers and boat suppliers will take months to trickle down according to law enforcement sources.

Ministers have been warned good weather this year is also contributing to a surge in crossings that are on course for a record year.

The number of so called “red days” when the calm seas and wind make it perfect to cross have doubled in 2025 so far according to the same point last year.

And intelligence monitoring of the Channel has indicated a rise in migrants from the Horn of Africa has seen riskier and larger crossings attempted.

Those smugglers are cramming more people into boats, which is also pushing up the numbers.

More than 12,000 people have already made the journey this year, putting 2025 on worst ever year since crossings began in 2017.

Government insiders are highly pessimistic about the prospect of reducing numbers this year.

And they warn that policy changes and increase in enforcement measures not noticably pay off until 2026 due to the high numbers of migrants already in France and ready to attempt the perilous journey.

Last night Sir Keir Starmer met with European counterparts in Tirana, Albania to discuss continent wide efforts to clampdown on illegal migration.

He is also pushing France to do more to stop the boats from launching on their beaches or reaching British waters as part of his EU-reset plan.

No boats made it across on Wednesday and Thursday when the weather was choppy, according to Home Office data.
But 292 migrants arrived in five boats on Tuesday.