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Tens of thousands of people have been warned they could be cut off and at least one person has been killed amid “incredible” rainfall across parts of NSW.
But the deluge has not been caused by a particularly extraordinary weather system, according to a Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) meteorologist.
Angus Hines, a senior forecaster, told ABC News on Thursday morning that some locations in the mid-north coast and Hunter regions had recorded 500-600mm of rain in the week so far — what he labelled an “incredible amount”.
Hines said what has caused it isn’t uncommon, although there have been two key factors that have given it a boost.
“It’s quite remarkable. If you look at it on a weather map, the system that is causing all this rainfall doesn’t look threatening,” Hines said.
“It’s what we call is a coastal trough, which is quite common on the east coast of the country but it’s had a couple of things working for it which have really ramped up the rainfall numbers over the past few days,” Hines said.
First, he said, the air being pulled into the east coast is extremely humid, carrying a lot of moisture that can produce rain if atmospheric conditions are right.
And secondly, the system hasn’t moved — it’s been stationary since around Monday, leading to continuous rainfall throughout the week.
“If it had only been one day and then it had gone, we would have seen some minor or moderate flooding, but it wouldn’t have been too bad,” Hines said.
“But four days in a row of this amount of rainfall and we see this significant, extensive, widespread and major flood event happening in front of our eyes.”
Prolonged heavy rainfall is set to continue throughout Thursday, with Kempsey and Coffs Harbour among the communities on high alert for flash flooding.
Some 50,000 people have been warned they could be isolated amid dozens of emergency warnings.
Flooding in Port Macquarie. Prolonged heavy rainfall is set to continue throughout Thursday, with Kempsey and Coffs Harbour among the communities on high alert for flash flooding. Source: AAP / Lindsay Moller
The discovery of the body of a 63-year-old man at Moto, south of Port Macquarie, was announced on Thursday morning as floods sweep NSW’s mid-north coast.
Police have also confirmed three people are missing.
NSW Premier Chris Minns told reporters on Thursday it was a “terrible” natural disaster and to brace “for more bad news in the next 24 hours”.
The NSW SES said it had responded to 1,023 incidents, including 339 flood rescues, in the 24 hours to 5am.
When will the rain in NSW ease?
Hines said BoM expects the weather system will start to shift later on Thursday or Friday, with rainfall across the mid-north coast and Hunter regions expected to ease.
“[It will be] much drier tomorrow as this weather system moves southwards,” he said.
He said it would likely get “quite wet” in Sydney, but it would be “nothing like the amount of rain seen further north”.
“We will not see the same amount of flooding in Sydney as we have seen north, but certainly a wet day today and into tomorrow.
“We will see some of the rain push into western slopes and plains and parts of western NSW, and by and large those areas will welcome the rainfall, having been very dry in recent months.”
— With the Australian Associated Press.
