Carlos Alcaraz seems well on his way to being the King of the Clay in men’s tennis.

Alcaraz has 10 titles (including a French Open) on the dirt, and boasts a 96-19 record on the surface. 

Those aren’t Rafa Nadal numbers, but it’s worth reminding yourself that Alcaraz just turned 22-years-old last month.

He should only get better.

Without Alcaraz, Lorenzo Musetti’s success on clay would likely have received more attention. The Italian has an impressive 14-3 record on clay courts in 2025, showcasing some of his best tennis.

Everything is pointing in the right direction for Musetti, and he’s still a big underdog against Alcaraz on Friday morning.

French Open semifinals: Alcaraz vs. Musetti betting preview

Alcaraz has been the favorite to win the French Open for the entire fortnight, but he has had a couple of stumbles along the way.

The Spaniard needed five sets to get past World No. 69 Damir Dzumhur, and he also lost a set against Ben Shelton and Fabian Marozsan.

Alcaraz demonstrated a strong performance in the quarterfinals by defeating World No. 12 Tommy Paul without dropping a set. Despite Paul not playing at his peak, Alcaraz cruised to a 6-0, 6-1, 6-4 victory.

Musetti has also had a couple of four-set battles, but he’s not faced any real pressure through the first five rounds of the tournament.

That will almost certainly change Friday against Alcaraz.

French Open semifinals: Alcaraz vs. Musetti pick

While Musetti has shown excellent form in the current tournament, his journey has been relatively unchallenging. His draw was favorable from the start and only became more straightforward as the early rounds unfolded.

He will take a massive step up in competition Friday, and I don’t know if he has the level to get by Alcaraz when he’s in this kind of rhythm.

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Alcaraz is 5-1 overall against Musetti, but he’s 3-0 against him on clay and none of those matches wound up being all that close.

This could be a rout.

THE PLAY: Alcaraz -2.5 sets (+100, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.