Alignment of Middle Eastern Countries in Conflict Between Iran and Israel

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As the latest Israel-Iran conflict continues, Iran’s allies have largely stayed on the sidelines.

United States President Donald Trump has told reporters he would not say whether he has decided to order a US strike on Iran, but Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said if he does, that “any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage”.

As the Middle East waits anxiously to see if or how the conflict escalates, some of Iran’s key allies there are strategically weakened, experts say.

Dara Conduit, a political science lecturer at Melbourne University, told SBS News Iran has few “friends” it can count on for military support if it asks, other than Russia.

Smoke rising from Tehran after an Israeli attack. Source: AAP / AP / Vahid Salemi

“While there is significant opposition across the region to the way that Israel is prosecuting this war, and its unilateral attack on Iran at a time when nuclear talks were ongoing and it was thought that a deal might be able to be reached, no state actually wants Iran to be able to have nuclear weapons.”

But Deakin University research fellow Ali Mamouri told SBS News that Iran has “decided not to use all its options yet”, referring to militias in Yemen and Iraq that it has relationships with.

Houthis and Iraqi militias

He said Iran, through its proxies, has the option of closing off the Strait of Hormuz, “which would cause significant damage to the global trading and oil supply”.

About 25 per cent of global oil supply passes through the narrow strait, which is off the south of Iran.

Tall buildings and vapour trails in the sky

Israel’s air defence system fires to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv on Thursday. Source: AAP / AP / Leo Correa

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement started attacking ships in the Red Sea area in November 2023 in what it said was in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

The group had attacked more than 100 ships up until a ceasefire in March this year, according to NGO the International Crisis Group.

The Houthis said on Sunday they have targeted Israel in coordination with Iran as part of this latest conflict, the first time an Iran-aligned group has publicly announced joint cooperation on attacks.

The Houthi forces in the Red Sea could also be mobilised to cause further disturbance to global trade, Ali said, but: “It seems that Iran is showing some kind of restraint and avoiding expanding the conflict and hoping for a possible diplomatic solution that might come up soon.”

Separately, Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah militia — a different group from Lebanon’s Hezbollah — released a statement saying it was “deeply regrettable” that Israel allegedly fired at Iran from Iraqi airspace, something that Baghdad complained to the UN Security Council over.

The Iraqi militia called on the Baghdad government to “urgently expel hostile forces from the country”, a reference to US troops in Iraq as part of the fight against the militant Islamic State group, but made no threat of force.

Iran has made significant progress in normalising relations with regional countries and improving its connections in recent years, Mamouri said.

“It now has close friendships with Saudi Arabia, with Egypt, Oman, Qatar and Turkey.”

Earlier this week, 21 Muslim-majority countries issued a statement supporting Iran and condemning Israel’s airstrikes, demanding urgent de-escalation.

Hezbollah

Iran has another ally in the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon that it finances, which has traded its own strikes with Israel since 7 October 2023, escalating into full-scale war in September.

Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top leaders and destroying much of its arsenal, before a US-negotiated ceasefire halted that conflict last November.

Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and to carry out near-daily airstrikes.

Hezbollah’s forces have not been mobilised.

Jordan

Israel’s neighbour Jordan is in a “very sensitive situation”, Mamouri said.

It had normalised relations with Israel a long time ago, but at the same time it has improved its relationship with Iran and is part of the Muslim and Arab world.

“It cannot go to war with Israel but on the other hand it’s not happy with what’s happening between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.”

Conduit said Jordan has historically taken a centrist position in the Middle East and “will really struggle to do anything significant”.

Russia

“Russia is in a really challenging position itself at the moment, having also lost its main ally in the Middle East in the Syrian regime. But it’s also really busy in Ukraine, and it’s very much tied down there, so Russia hasn’t been directly involved in what’s going on at the moment, but it has been very clear that it does not want the US to get involved in this conflict,” she said.

Mamouri said Iran and Russia have been drawn closer by Israel’s attacks on Iran, because Iran has received a message from Western forces that signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons did not protect it from attack from outside forces.

“Iran can see now clearly that there is no international protection for the country.”

US

Asked for his response to Khamenei’s rejection of the idea of surrendering, Trump said: “I say, good luck.”

Conduit said Iran has become trapped, and any US involvement would trigger a significant escalation in the conflict.

“If the US does get involved and it does strike Iran, there are very few opportunities left for Iran to do anything other than respond and target US interests across the region, be they military installations or other things. And it’s very hard to go back from that,” she said.

On the other hand, Mamouri said if the latest conflicts in the Middle East drag on, Israel’s allies in the US and Europe might put more pressure on it to stop its assault on Gaza and de-escalate its conflict with Iran.

“US and European forces have interests in the region, and if the conflict becomes longer, it’s possible to spill in the region and it’ll affect their interest in the region for sure.”