President Trump is seeing warning signs emerge from independent voters as his approval rating weakens with the key voting bloc. 

Trump’s net approval among unaffiliated voters reached its lowest level of his second term on Tuesday, according to an aggregate from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), with his disapproval rating surpassing 60 percent for the first time since he took office. This has accompanied a wider decline in his overall approval rating throughout June. 

The shifts among independents could be linked in particular to disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy, observers say. And they present an opportunity for Democrats as they struggle to rebuild their coalition heading into 2026 and beyond. 

“Right now, the independents are the moving factor,” said Scott Tranter, the director of data science for DDHQ. “He’s holding his base, and he’s staying steady not liked by Democrats, and so that’s kind of why you see it.” 

A significant improvement among independents compared to the 2020 race was one key part of Trump’s victory in last year’s election. While he and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied in this group, according to a report released Thursday from Pew Research Center, that was a net 9-point shift toward him compared to four years earlier. 

Trump’s approval rating has been relatively steady among Democrats and Republicans, with his numbers mostly staying in the mid-to-low teens for the former and the 80s for the latter. But the percentage of independents approving of his performance has fluctuated notably more. 

Tranter noted the movement is still relatively small compared to what shifts occurred historically, and independents only account for a small percentage of voters. 

“A 3-to-4 point movement among his base is worth roughly the movement we saw in the independents in terms of vote share,” he said. “Basically, we got to see massive movements like that in independents to really move the vote share.” 

“He won independents, or had an edge on them in the battleground states in 2024,” he said. “I don’t know that it really matters a whole lot to him. It matters a whole lot more to the party, these congressionals going into 2026.” 

Some of the latest numbers across pollsters don’t paint the brightest picture for Trump with voters who aren’t as married to one party. 

Polls from YouGov/The Economist and Quinnipiac University show him more than 30 points underwater, while Emerson College shows him under by 12 points.

One survey from a pollster associated with the Independent Center, which conducts research and works to engage independent voters, found only 37 percent of registered voters approve of his job performance. It also found declining support for him on the issues they considered most important ahead of his inauguration — lowering the debt, reducing inflation, cutting spending and easing political divisions. 

Lura Forcum, the center’s president, said independents who supported Trump largely did because of economic concerns, but they aren’t satisfied with the current progress. 

Economic indicators have been mixed throughout Trump’s second term, with stocks rising and the S&P 500 hitting a record high Friday — but at the same time that a key inflation measure rose. The most recent update on gross domestic product from the first quarter of the year showed the economy shrank faster than initially thought. 

Forcum cited the result of the Democratic primary for the New York City mayoral race, in which democratic socialist Assembly member Zohran Mamdani won, as evidence that voters want a candidate who will do what’s necessary to improve their financial situation, regardless of ideology. 

“Voters want something to be done about the economy, and at this point, they are not really particular about the details,” she said. “They are financially uncomfortable, and they’re expecting candidates or elected officials to do something about it. And if you can’t do that, you really, probably can’t win them over at the end of the day.” 

She noted that the 2026 midterms are still more than a year away and time remains to win independents back, but Trump must “deliver” on the issues that they have indicated are important. 

Republicans acknowledged the influence of independents in determining a candidate’s success or failure and that Trump has time to improve, but they differed on how much the numbers are a warning sign. 

Veteran GOP political consultant Christopher Nicholas said any time that a president has lower approval ratings, it can weigh down other candidates seeking to rise, even if it’s only a difference of a few points. He said a Republican challenging Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) next year would have a much easier time if Trump’s approval rating is 48 percent rather than 42 percent. 

As of Thursday, Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 45.8 percent in the DDHQ average. 

Nicholas, who publishes the PA Political Digest newsletter, argued that economic information has improved as the stock market’s past losses have been reversed. But he said the more time that passes in which independents don’t approve of Trump’s performance, the harder convincing them will be. 

“So the longer you’re around, even though it’s only been barely, five, six months, the harder it becomes, because now you have to change people’s minds, get them back to neutral and then move them to favorable,” he said. 

Republican strategist Constantin Querard said the state of the generic congressional ballot, in which voters are broadly asked if they would want to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress, gives him more optimism. 

Despite Trump’s struggles, the parties are tied in the average as of Wednesday, with 45.1 percent each. 

The population breakdown of congressional districts generally gives Republicans a slight advantage, requiring Democrats to lead in the generic ballot by a few points to have a strong chance at winning control of the House, which will be the party’s main goal in 2026. 

“It’s almost the more important number going in 2026 because Trump’s not on the ballot,” Querard said. 

“In 2024, Trump put together a coalition that was larger than the usual and made up somewhat different than the usual,” he added. “So we did better with minority voters, independent voters, Black men, Hispanic men. There were a lot of gains into a lot of communities that the question is, does that sustain itself? And gosh, we’re a long way from knowing that.” 

And analysts agreed a frustration with the person in charge has been a commonality across multiple administrations in the current political era. 

Querard said if the numbers hold for Trump’s approval and the generic ballot, it may mean voters choose to stay home rather than vote. 

“If they voted for Trump in November and then they disappear, that’s not good, but it’s still a lot different than if they switched from Republicans to Democrats,” he said. 

Tranter said Trump’s current numbers are what Democrats would want to see in 2026, but it would need to stay — and fluctuations are common. 

“This number is what they want to see 12 months from now,” he said. “It’s just not 12 months from now. Maybe it holds, but we’ll see.”