Among Republicans, Vice President JD Vance appears to be growing more powerful, popular and presidential. However, the overall RealClear poll average gives Vance just a 41 percent favorable rating, with 47 percent unfavorable.

The high-profile vice president is seen in nearly every Oval Office meeting photo, signaling a close relationship with President Trump. Such proximity is deliberate, since the “showman-in-chief” leverages optics more effectively than anyone as a powerful messaging tool.

Although the 2028 presidential campaign is three years away — centuries in political dog years — the 40-year-old Vance is on a trajectory to win the Republican nomination. In a recent Emerson poll, he garnered 46 percent support among registered Republican primary voters for 2028.

That same poll found Vance’s closest Republican rivals were Secretary of State Marco Rubio, supported by 12 percent, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, at 9 percent. Rubio in 2016 and DeSantis in 2024 both had disastrous presidential runs against Trump and, in the process, alienated the MAGA base. At the time, Rubio and DeSantis were warned by political strategists to wait for more political seasoning in a future presidential cycle. Both paid a price for their unbridled ambition.

Vance knows that his 2028 prospects hinge on Republican success in the 2026 midterms, which will be linked to Trump’s sinking job approval. Therefore, in addition to his demanding day job, the vice president has been in full campaign mode since March, when he was appointed finance chair of the Republican National Committee. That strategically brilliant early move by Team Trump positioned Vance as a presidential heir, facilitating frequent interactions with the party’s most powerful donors and state party leaders.

For Vance, raising money from wealthy Republicans is relatively easy, since he has around a 50 percent chance of becoming the next president and stands a heartbeat away from replacing the 79-year-old incumbent.

But can millions of dollars translate into the millions of votes needed to keep the Republicans in control of the House and Senate when Trump is not on the ballot? For that task, Vance is Trump’s point man, and he has the most to gain or lose. Political history favors Democrats winning back the House, but if Vance can work some magic and defy the odds, he could go on to win the early 2028 primaries and quickly claim the nomination.

Some Republicans argue that the party will “waste time and money” better spent fighting Democrats if Trump does not quickly anoint Vance. The operative word is “if,” because Trump cares deeply about his legacy. A family dynasty would further solidify his place in history.

Thus, a simmering rivalry between JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. could develop during the midterm campaigns, foreshadowing a potential primary showdown.

The president’s firstborn is already a MAGA favorite and, more recently, an international power player. In May, Don Jr. slightly opened his window to the White House.

Even though Vance owes his unexpected 2024 nomination to his close friend Donald Jr., their relationship could become contentious. Imagine the following: Junior emerges from the midterms as a star with presidential media buzz. He generates enormous energy, draws massive crowds and raises untold millions. Ballrooms are filled with supporters waving “Junior 2028” signs and wearing “Trump 45, 47, 48” ballcaps.

Vance’s problem is Daddy Trump’s Machiavellian opportunity.

Recent history proves that no rules or laws apply to Trump. He thrives on defying conventional norms and stomps on traditional presidential behavior, delighting conservative media and his loyal MAGA base. (But watch the Epstein story, which could have long-term repercussions.)

Let’s examine three highly speculative but completely plausible scenarios.

First, suppose in 2026 Republicans retain control of Congress, with both Vance and Don Jr. receiving credit. Eyeing a family dynasty, the president strikes a deal. Early in 2027, he endorses Vance’s presidential campaign with the secret caveat that Vance selects the younger Trump as his running mate well before the 2028 convention.

The Vance-Trump ticket could be wildly popular with the base, but independent voters might be mixed. I dare not speculate about the Democratic ticket or the prospects of a Vance-Trump victory. But note that the last vice president to immediately succeed his boss was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Credit went to a weak Democratic opponent, a booming economy and President Ronald Reagan’s popularity, which enabled Bush to win “Reagan’s third term” with 426 votes in the Electoral College.

The second scenario unfolds around September 2028. Trump develops a “serious” health issue (real or contrived), forcing him to resign. Naturally, the newly installed President Vance appoints his running mate, Donald Jr., as vice president. Now that incumbents are up for election, the 2028 campaign is a short, new, chaotic race.

In the third scenario, the 2026 midterms are disastrous for the Republicans, and Vance emerges as a weak presidential candidate. Still, no Republican primary opponent has enough support to defeat the incumbent vice president. The only two people who could derail Vance’s nomination are named Trump.

Meanwhile, an angry president believes he must avenge the midterm losses that he insists were rigged and stolen. He partly blames Vance and demands that a Trump must top the 2028 Republican ballot. Moreover, the frustrated lame duck is enraged that Vance has begun separating himself from problematic Trump policies, campaigning on what he would do differently if elected.

Consequently, Trump does not endorse Vance for president. Instead, Donald Jr. announces his presidential bid to defend his father’s legacy and keep the MAGA movement alive.

Will Vance rise or fall? These three scenarios are neither improbable nor impossible. Considering that Trump rose from the ashes of Jan. 6, 2021, to win the 2024 election, he proved that anything is possible — at least for someone named Trump.

Myra Adams is a political and religious opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.