The Christian population in Bethlehem has plummeted from 86% in 1950 to about 10% today, amid reports of violence, coercion, and economic hardship that are driving an exodus from the Holy Land.

Why it matters: This sharp decline threatens the survival of one of Christianity’s oldest communities, casting a shadow over religious heritage sites and highlighting broader instability in the region that affects minorities and tourism-dependent economies.

Driving the news: Recent data from the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs shows Christians in Palestinian Authority areas dropping from 11% in 1922 to less than 1% now, with Gaza’s community shrinking from 5,000 before Hamas’s 2007 takeover to just 1,000 by October 2023.

• US Ambassador Mike Huckabee’s threat to declare Israel unwelcoming to Christians over visa denials for evangelical groups adds to the narrative of exclusion.
• Pope Francis accused Israel of cruelty in Gaza, prompting backlash and tying into debates over a Vatican nativity display symbolizing Palestinian nationalism.
• Bethlehem’s Christians rely heavily on tourism, but with visitor numbers down, the community faces an uncertain future.

Catch up quick: Bethlehem, birthplace of Jesus, was once predominantly Christian but has seen steady emigration due to occupation restrictions, high unemployment (27% in the West Bank), and security concerns. Similar trends affect the wider Holy Land, where Christians made up 18% of Palestine’s population before 1948 but now comprise less than 2% in the West Bank, Gaza, and Israel.

The intrigue: Despite historical coexistence with Muslims for over 1,500 years, modern conflicts and weak law enforcement have accelerated the decline, with some locals feeling neglected by global Christian institutions.

Between the lines: Economic pressures and perceptions of violence deter tourists, crippling Bethlehem’s economy and exacerbating the exodus, while international criticisms like the Pope’s underscore growing scrutiny of regional policies.

What they’re saying:

“In 1922, Christians made up 11% of the population in Palestinian Authority-controlled regions. Today, they account for less than 1%. In Gaza, the Christian population has dropped from 5,000 before Hamas seized power in 2007 to just 1,000 as of October 2023.”

This statistic from Ynetnews illustrates the rapid demographic shift driven by violence and coercion.

“50 years ago, Christians made up 80 percent of Bethlehem’s population. Now, they represent just under 12 percent.”

Ground Truth Project attributes this to crippling economic conditions and restrictions in occupied territories.

The bottom line: As US Ambassador Huckabee’s warnings echo the sentiment that Christians are no longer welcome, the ongoing exile from Bethlehem signals a potential loss of cultural and religious diversity, urging attention to the root causes before it’s irreversible.