Vice President JD Vance has come out as the apparent favorite to win the 2028 presidential election, according to a prediction market. The 40-year-old is favorite to become the next commander in chief with a 27 percent chance already, according to Polymarket. In second place was California Governor Gavin Newsom with a 14 percent chance, which has fallen two percent according to the market. Democratic firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez closely trails the Golden State leader with a ten percent chance.

Others close by the top three frontrunners included Pete Buttigieg with eight percent, and Marco Rubio, with a six percent chance. Outsiders included incumbent President Donald Trump, with a three percent chance, even though he cannot run for a third term, and his son Donald Jr., with the same. Trump has toyed with the idea of running for a third term, despite the Constitution stipulating that presidents are limited to two four-year terms.

In late March he told NBC News: ‘I’m not joking, there are methods which you could do it,’ when asked to elaborate he declined to answer. Vance started fielding questions in February, after just a few weeks in office as the veep, on a potential run for the White House in 2028. Speaking with Fox News in early February he gave little away, saying: ‘We’ll cross that political bridge when we come to it.’

‘We’ll see what happens come 2028. But the way that I think about this is, the best thing for my future is actually the best thing for the American people, which is that we do a really good job over the next three and a half years.’ Newsom has also been questioned on the possibility of running as the Democratic candidate. Speaking with The Wall Street Journal last month, he told the outlet: ‘I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.’

He added that it was too early to make a decision and would wait to see if the moment felt right, the outlet added. In a Daily Mail poll earlier this year, Trump came out on top against all of his Republican rivals in a hypothetical 2028 primary race. Republican respondents were told to presume that Trump’s Constitutional hurdles of getting on the ballot again had been cleared to see if there was an appetite for a third Trump time.

A whopping 39 percent said Trump would be their first choice, followed by 19 percent who selected Vice President. After that, failed 2024 candidates, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley garnered 6 percent and 4 percent support, respectively. Without Trump in the equation, Vance dominates the 2028 GOP primary, the new polling found.

Forty-eight percent of Republicans chose Vance to be the GOP nominee, followed by just 8 percent who selected DeSantis. Trump is barred from running again due to the 22nd Amendment in the U.S. Constitution. Republicans could try and amend the Constitution again to allow presidents to serve more than two terms, as one pro-MAGA congressman has suggested — but there’s an extremely high bar to do such a thing.

The amendment would need to be proposed by either two-thirds of both houses of Congress or by a national convention called by two-thirds of the states. And then the proposal would need to be ratified by three-fourths of the states — either by their legislatures or by special conventions.