Back-to-school shopping is already under way. And this year’s essential: avoiding tariffs.

Two-thirds of Americans with school-aged children started shopping for the upcoming school year in July, the earliest on record, according to a new survey from the National Retail Federation. Families, concerned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could drive prices even higher, are looking for deals and pulling back on spending.

“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on school essentials,” said Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at the NRF, in a statement.

Half of back-to-school shoppers say they are hitting stores earlier this year compared to last year specifically because they are worried tariffs will increase prices, the NRF’s survey found. Many school essentials like backpacks, clothing, and electronics are imported into the United States.

Tariffs on most of America’s trading partners are set to rise on August 1, unless they can make a trade deal with the United States before then. On Tuesday, Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, his sixth such announcement, setting a 15% tariff on Japanese imports. Most countries are operating under a 10% universal tariff, while China faces a 30% tariff until August 12.

“Many shoppers are looking to buy now because of the promotional deals offered by many retailers in July, along with the desire to get ahead of possible price increases and inventory issues from tariff uncertainty,” said Adam Davis, managing director of Wells Fargo retail finance.

Not only are Americans shopping earlier for school essentials – they are also pulling back on spending. Shoppers are expected to spend about $858 per family on clothes, school supplies and electronics this year, down 2% from last year, according to the NRF.

“Shoppers are also weighing value and necessity more carefully. We continue to see a trend of trading down – from branded to private-label products – as consumers look to stretch their budgets,” said Davis.

With shoppers spending less, retailers are competing for every dollar. Target’s back-to-school event advertises savings of 30%, promising to not raises prices on 20 of the most popular school supplies and backpacks. Walmart says 14 of their most popular school supplies cost less than last year. Seventy percent of Walmart shoppers told the company in a survey they plan to spend more time looking for discounts this year.

“We can see retailers maximizing on summer sales to offer discounts and get budget-conscious shoppers in stores, especially with specific promotions and discounts tied to school necessities,” said Davis.

Consumers spent $24.1 billion during Amazon’s four-day prime event in July, up 30% from the year before, according to data from Adobe. Competitive discounts drove demand, with back-to-school supply sales up a whopping 175%, Adobe said.

But price increases from tariffs will catch up with consumers soon, as retailers start to run through the inventory they imported before tariffs took effect, according to John Zoldis, a retail analyst at Quo Vadis Capital, an investment advisory.

That should happen this month, he said, with American consumers feeling the impact in about 2 to 4 weeks.

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