President Donald Trump’s approach with Russian President Vladimir Putin pivoted drastically this month when, for the first time since returning to the White House, he not only confirmed his support for Ukraine in a NATO arms agreement but issued an ultimatum to the Kremlin chief.

The warning came in a clear message: Enter into a peace deal with Ukraine or face stiff international sanctions on its top commodity, oil sales.

While the move has been championed by some, it has been questioned by others who debate whether it will be enough to deter Putin’s war ambitions in Ukraine. One security expert is arguing the plan will work, but it might take years to be effective.

President Trump speaks to Russian President Vladimir Putin during his first term.  (Reuters/Jorge Silva)

“Ukraine shouldn’t be restricted merely to shooting down ‘arrows’,” Hardie said. “An optimal approach will combine both offense and defense. Ukraine needs to be able to hit the ‘archer’ and the factories that make the ‘arrows.’

“Putin will continue his unprovoked war so long as he believes it’s sustainable and offers a pathway to achieving his goals,” Hardie argued. “By shoring up Ukraine’s defense of its skies and enabling Ukraine to inflict growing costs on Russia’s war machine, as well as pressuring the Russian economy and exhausting Russia’s offensive potential on the ground, we may be able to change that calculus.”

But Fleitz, who serves as vice chair of the America First Policy Institute’s Center for American Security, said he believes this war will only be brought to an end when an armistice agreement is secured. 

“I think there’s probably going to be an armistice where both sides will agree to suspend the fighting,” Fleitz said. “Someday, we will find a line where both nations will agree to stop fighting.”

Ultimately, he believes this will happen by Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO for a certain period of time, though with Moscow’s understanding that Kyiv will be heavily armed by Western allies. 

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, right, and President Donald Trump, talk as they attend the funeral of Pope Francis in Vatican April 26, 2025. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

“I think there’s a way to do this where Russia wouldn’t be concerned about growing Western European influence in Ukraine, and Ukraine would not be worried that Russia will invade once a ceasefire or armistice is declared,” he added. “Maybe this is a pipe dream, but I think that’s the most realistic way to stop the fighting.

“We know from history conflicts like this take time; peacemaking takes time,” Fleitz said. “I think that over time, Trump is going to have an effect on Putin.”