US President Donald Trump points to a member of the audience.
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While that’s a far cry from the host of nations that were hit with higher duties, economists have warned Australia still faces a significant economic hit from the announcement.

The concerns – which were reflected in the Australian share market, which plunged about one per cent following the news – stem from the fact that several major economies, including key trading partners, received no such reprieve.

US President Donald Trump points to a member of the audience.
Australia has dodged a direct hit, but it’s the indirect impact that could damage the economy. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

India received 25 per cent, and Canada’s rate was hiked up to 35 per cent.

Japan and South Korea both secured deals to reduce their tariffs, but they’re still sitting higher than Australia’s at 15 per cent.

That could hamper global growth, which would in turn hit the Australian economy.

“The bad news is that other countries appear to be facing higher tariffs than many had come to expect, which will push the average US tariff up to around 20 per cent, which is way up from 2-3 per cent at the start of the year,” AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said.

“This risks weaker US and global growth which could mean less demand for our exports, threatening Australian growth.”

There’s also plenty of uncertainty surrounding the situation.

Generic ASX, Australian, Securities Exchange, Exchange Centre, stock market, shares, trade, money, retirement, super funds, superannuation. Monday 7th April 2025 AFR photo Louie Douvis
The ASX200 fell following the tariff announcement. (Louie Douvis)

After initially promising the new tariffs would come into effect now, Trump has pushed the start date back a week to August 7 – inviting more “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) accusations – and there is a legal challenge against the duties in the US that is expected to eventually reach the Supreme Court.

There was also no announcement on what rate the US will slap on Chinese goods, leaving open the chance that tariffs could spike between the world’s two largest economies again when the current pause expires on August 12.

The concern about the economic damage caused by the tariffs and the accompanying uncertainty was raised by RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser early last month.

“The level of uncertainty is clearly elevated and the implications… for a global trading economy like Australia with these fundamental changes are very profound,” he said, before drawing parallels to some of the long-term economic impacts caused by Brexit.

“The first-round effects of US tariffs are probably minor,” he said.

“The effects on the global economy are profound… what is interesting about the data I would say globally as well as in Australia so far – and it’s very early days – is perhaps some of the worst predictions of what this might mean have not yet come to pass…

“The day after Brexit happened, everyone thought the world would end and it didn’t.

“Ten years on, you’re seeing some of the profound effects of some of those changes for sustainable growth rates and some of the fundamental things in the economy.

“Going back to the things at the beginning will have more and lasting effects than ‘here today, gone tomorrow’.”

The RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) building, 65 Martin Place, Sydney.
The RBA is keeping a close eye on the tariff developments. (AFR)

Why was Australia spared a tariff hike?

Much has been made of Australia’s tariff remaining steady shortly after the federal government paused biosecurity restrictions on US beef exports, which had been singled out by Trump during his so-called Liberation Day announcement.

The government insists that wasn’t a form of bargaining, and the decision was made purely on scientific evidence.

Whether that played a role in Trump’s decision or was just a coincidence probably won’t be known for certain.

However, it appears the (relative) reprieve largely comes down to the fact Australia runs a trade deficit with the United States – that is, it buys more goods and services from the US than it sells.

Bloomberg has reported the White House put nations into three groups: those who run a trade deficit with the US; those who either have a small trade surplus or a deal with the US; and those without a deal and with a big trade surplus with the US.

That last group was slapped with high tariffs, the middle group copped around about 15 per cent, while the first – including Australia – received 10 per cent.

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