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Warm, wet weather has been predicted for most parts of mainland Australia as the country heads into spring.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has released its long-range forecast for August to October, which shows that rainfall is likely to be above average for most of the country — except for the west and far south-east.
For parts of Australia, including southern Queensland, the southern Northern Territory, and parts of eastern South Australia, there is also an increased chance of unusually high rainfall.
It’s also likely that this period will be warmer than usual for most of northern, western and south-eastern Australia.
Unusually hot temperatures are expected across far northern Australia and Tasmania.
While northern NSW, southern Queensland and eastern South Australia may be in for colder than average weather during the day, most of Australia will experience warm nights.
BoM meteorologist Masoud Edraki told SBS News that Australia has had above-average warm conditions for “many months” and that trend will continue.
What’s happening in the climate
The BoM also released the climate indicators it uses to build these long-range forecasts.
While Edraki said the indicators are “very complex”, the weather across August to October is partly being driven by high sea surface temperatures that are being experienced around the globe.
In June, the temperatures in the oceans surrounding Australia were the second-warmest on record since observations began.
Last year, Australia’s sea surface temperatures were the warmest on record, reaching around 0.89C above average.
This year small patches of the ocean off Australia’s south-west and in the Coral Sea — off Australia’s north-east coast — have recorded temperatures 3C warmer than average.
This year, parts of the ocean surrounding Australia are ranging up to 3C higher than average.
A marine heatwave in South Australia that has persisted since September has been blamed as the cause behind a toxic algal bloom that spanned four-and-a-half thousand square kilometres in May.
The algal bloom is thought to have killed tens of thousands of marine animals, according to Deputy Premier of South Australia Susan Close.
While the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is currently in a neutral phase, this is likely to change later in the year.
“It’s predicted in the following months, in the late spring and summertime, it will get closer to the La Niña range,” Edraki said, which will contribute to the wet weather.
