The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has named the fifth storm of the season, Tropical Storm Erin.

Forecasters predict Erin will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday. If so, it would be the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.

By Saturday, Erin could become a major Category 3 storm. It will still be well out to sea then, so it will not have an effect on the U.S. coastline this week.

Models indicate Erin will track through the ocean between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast from Tuesday to Thursday next week (August 19-21). With over a week until its potential impact, both Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast are closely monitoring the system, as any shift east or west could result in significant effects. For now, Erin does not pose a direct threat to the U.S.

On average, the fifth named storm appears on Aug. 22, so we’re 11 days ahead of schedule on that front. However, the first hurricane of the season generally forms around August 11, so we will be on par with that stat.

NHC is also closely monitoring two other areas in the Atlantic, both showing potential for tropical development.

In the Central Atlantic, a trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible by midweek as the system moves northward, though formation chances remain low at 10 percent within 48 hours and 10 percent over the next seven days.

In the Northwestern Atlantic, a non-tropical area of low pressure is sitting a few hundred miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. Right now, there is not much shower or thunderstorm activity, but it’s drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. That means there’s a slight chance for some tropical or subtropical development over the next day or two. By midweek, it’s expected to move northward over cooler waters, likely ending any chance for further development. Formation chances are low at 10 percent within 48 hours and 10 percent over the next seven days.

NHC has predicted an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic. August, September and October are the most active months.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.