Fact Checkers Evaluate Immigration Claims from Australia March

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On Sunday, thousands rallied across Australia in anti-immigration marches, with One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, and federal MP Bob Katter among the speakers at the rallies, which aimed to “take back” the country.

Despite organisers distancing themselves from neo-Nazi groups such as the National Socialist Network (NSN), its leader, Thomas Sewell, spoke at the Melbourne rally. In Sydney, the leader of White Australia NSW took to the stage.

At the heart of the so-called ‘March for Australia’ rallies was a call to end “mass migration”, which, according to the organisers, “has torn at the bonds that held our communities together”.

In the lead-up to the event, promotional flyers and some media outlets promoting the rallies made several claims about Australia’s migration statistics and policies.

SBS News asked experts whether these immigration claims hold up.

Claim: ‘More than 1,500 migrants arrive in Australia every day’

On 18 August, 2GB radio host Ben Fordham said that 1,544 migrants, or the equivalent of five fully-loaded Boeing 787 Dreamliners, were arriving in Australia “day after day, week after week”.

Fordham went on to suggest this figure is why the ‘March for Australia’ protests were organised. He argued this level of migration added up to 457,000 new arrivals over the 2024-25 financial year, which would be higher than the net migration figure of 446,000 in 2023-24, but lower than the previous year’s all-time peak of 536,000.

“At this pace, in just three years we will add 1.4 million people, and that’s around the population of Adelaide,” Fordham said.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said these figures are not an accurate reflection of actual migration figures. It is based on overseas arrivals and departures data, which counts long-term and permanent migrants as they arrive and depart through Australian borders.

The ABS said that historically, net permanent and long-term movements from overseas arrivals and departures are consistently higher than net overseas migration.

Former deputy secretary of the immigration department and independent commentator, Abul Rizvi, explained why:

“Many people who are long-term in Australia, such as students, are going in and out frequently. Each time they go in and out, they keep getting counted. So it can throw things about a lot,” Rizvi said.

The ABS will publish its figures on the national, state, and territory population for the March quarter of 2025 on 18 September.

Claim: ‘More Indians in five years than Greeks and Italians in 100’

This claim, which specifically singled out the Indian community, appeared on a flyer released by March for Australia organisers. It implied that a higher number of Indian nationals have migrated to Australia since 2020, than there have been Greek and Italian arrivals since 1925.

There are several data limitations when it comes to assessing this claim. Firstly, accurate migration data for the past year will not be available until mid-September. Second, historical migration statistics from Australia start from 1945.

Peter McDonald, emeritus professor of demography at the Australian National University, said the claim is an “odd statement to make”.

A crowd of people with their backs turned, Australian flags in the air. A spire. Blue sky.

Protesters outside Parliament House in Canberra on Sunday. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas

McDonald also pointed out that similar narratives targeting the Greek and Italian communities were common in the post-war period.

“When Italians and Greeks came to Australia in the 1950s and 1960s, they were met by extreme racism. They were charged with not assimilating to Australian culture. Now, apparently, they are Australian culture,” McDonald says.

SBS News contacted March for Australia organisers to ask for the source of the figures, and did not receive a reply.

Claim: Migration is ‘replacement, plain and simple’

The flyer goes on to claim that the reason for increased Indian migration to Australia is “replacement, plain and simple”.

The sentiment was echoed on Sunday by a speaker at the Sydney rally, who identified himself as a co-organiser. He told the crowd that “there is a clear global agenda to shame, beat down and replace people of Celtic and European heritage”.

This language is associated with the baseless conspiracy linked to Christchurch terrorist Brenton Tarrant — the “great replacement theory”.

Abul Rizvi said this extremist narrative is “essentially not the way migration works”.

He said the larger cohort of migrants from India is due to the way Australia selects skilled migrants.

“They have a high level of English, and English is a big factor in skills and stream selection. So if you thought about the whole population of China and the whole population of India, the proportion who could potentially migrate from India is much higher simply because of the English language skills.”

Rizvi said the numbers of Indian arrivals look inflated due to student arrivals, but that not all will remain in Australia after their studies.

“There’s a portion who leave, a portion who will [become] permanent resident, and a portion that gets stuck in limbo. Right now, the portion in limbo is large, and it’s hard to estimate how many will [eventually] leave.”

Claim: ‘The majority is with us’

March for Australia pointed to a poll from the Lowy Institute claiming that 53 per cent of Australians believe the total number of migrants coming to the country is “too high”.

This was compared to 38 per cent of Australians who said migration was “too low” and seven per cent who said it was “just right”.

The survey is considered nationally representative with a total of 2,117 responses and a margin of error of 2.1 per cent, according to the Lowy Institute’s methodology. It is accurate that the Australians surveyed believed the number of migrants coming to the country is too high.

However, the Lowy Institute provides more context to this statistic, observing that migration numbers are already dropping. Although figures are yet to be released, Rizvi estimates they will fall somewhere in the 300,000s, which would be down from the post-covid peak of 536,000 in the 2022-23 financial year.

A graph showing net overseas migation figures

Credit: SBS News

However, Rizvi predicts immigration will be higher than the Treasury’s own forecast of 260,000 migrants, which was later adjusted in December 2024 to 340,000.

“Treasury have got the forecasts wrong now in the last two to three years and it has created a lack of trust in their forecasts,” he said.