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Most Australians will remember the Black Summer bushfires that burnt more than 24 million hectares and claimed 33 lives at the tail end of the 2017 to 2019 drought.
But something worse is coming, according to scientists like Dr Georgina Falster.
“Australia, as a continent, is naturally prone to megadroughts which last 20 or more years,” she told 9news.com.au.
A climate scientist, she’s spent years digging into Australia’s past to predict and prepare for extreme weather events in the future, from megadroughts to deadly floods.
Combining modern weather observations, climate model simulations, and natural archives like tree rings and ice cores, she discovered that megadroughts have always been a natural part of Australia’s climate.
“It’s just luck that we have not had one in the past century,” Falster said.
But that’s about to change.
“It’s impossible to predict exactly when one will happen, [but] in the coming centuries, there will definitely be at least one mega drought somewhere in southeastern Australia.”
And if we don’t start preparing for it now, she fears the fallout could be catastrophic.
Megadrought on the horizon
A megadrought is an exceptionally severe drought that lasts more than 15 years and covers wide areas.
Lakes and rivers dry up, water becomes scarce, crops fail, and wildlife populations collapse, usually leading to a mass exodus of people as they try to escape affected areas.
Australia has experienced these megadroughts throughout history and, according to Falster’s research, will likely do so again.
Whether or not the nation is prepared for it is up to us.
”If we do have a megadrought today, the big problem would be that it would be against the backdrop of human-caused climate change,” Falster said.
“Which actually has been shown by my research and others to make the impacts of droughts worse.”
Warmer temperatures and more extreme weather events caused by climate change could have catastrophic effects in the case of a megadrought here in Australia.
In fact, we need only look to North America to see just how devastating it could be.
The south-west US has been in the grips of a megadrought for the last 25 years that has caused agriculture to collapse, natural ecosystems to wither, and tens of millions of people – those who can afford it – to relocate away from affected areas.
Falster predicts that without adequate preparation, the same could happen here.
“What I really want is for governments and water management authorities to realise this, and at least have it in their minds that this is something that we could and should be prepared for,” she said.
We’ve already seen a spike in extreme weather events like devastating bushfires and flood events in recent years, so being prepared by developing water management plans and expanding initiatives like the Future Drought Fund (FDF) will only benefit Australians.
Everyday Australians can make a difference
Though an impending 20-year megadrought sounds scary, Falster said everyday Australians are the key to making a difference.
Even small acts like using public transport, buying second-hand and reducing waste can benefit the environment and contribute to social change, which fuels political action.
“I think the important thing to remember is that at no point is it too late to do something about climate change,” she said.
“There’s no point at which we just throw our hands up and say, ‘it’s a lost cause’.
“Every little thing that we can do makes a difference.”
And she’s just been given the opportunity to make even more of a difference.
Falster was named one of the 2025 L’Oréal–UNESCO For Women in Science Fellows, awarded $25,000 to further her research and stands to inspire the next generation of women in Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics and Medicine (STEMM) fields.
Research has shown that young women are increasingly invested in combating climate change and Falster is excited to see more girls grow up to become climate scientists.
“The fact remains that it is still quite difficult [to be a female scientist], and it’s a male-dominated field,” she said.
“All I can hope for is that one day there will be absolutely no barriers to any woman to pursue anything they like.
“Because at the end of the day, big challenges like climate change need a diverse range of people addressing the topic.
“Just white men doing science is insufficient.”