NATO has been on high alert since Russia invaded Ukraine more than three and a half years ago, but a recent spike in the alliance’s airspace violations has security experts increasingly concerned that warnings of war with Moscow are no longer theoretical, but inevitable.

President Donald Trump on Thursday said the U.S. could “end up in World War III” over Russia’s war in Ukraine and conceded that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “let him down” over his refusal to end his military campaign. 

One day later, Russia sent three fighter jets over Estonia’s capital city of Tallinn in a direct and clear violation of its airspace, prompting another NATO member to spark Article 4 for the second time in as many weeks.

A picture shows French Mirage 2000 fighter jets flying over Estonia, on March 30, 2022. (Didier Lauras/AFP via Getty Images)

Just three days after the drone swarm bombarded Polish air defense systems, a Russian drone crossed into Romanian airspace and prompted a French fighter jet and Polish helicopter to respond under NATO’s Operation Eastern Sentry – a defensive posture the alliance launched just one day prior. 

These events came after Lithuania in late July was forced to sound the alarm following two separate incidents in which Russian Gerber drones violated its borders, including one which was carrying explosives.

But these tactics are not the only threats that security experts in recent weeks have flagged as concerning behavior from Moscow. 

Earlier this month, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) based in Washington, D.C. drew attention to an op-ed published by former Russian president and current Security Council chair Dmitry Medvedev on Sept. 8 in the state-sponsored news outlet TASS, which used language that directly mirrored rhetoric by the Kremlin in the lead up to its invasion of Ukraine. 

In his article, Medvedev accused Finland of being “Russophobic” and claimed, “the thirst for profit at the expense of Russia was installed in Finnish minds back in the days of Hitler.” 

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin inspects the “Zapad-2025” (West-2025) joint Russian-Belarusian military drills at a training ground in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Belarus, on Sept. 16, 2025.  (Mikhail Metzel/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

He further claimed that Helsinki has attempted to erase the “historical and cultural identity” of ethnic Russians and said joined NATO under the “guise” of defense, but in actuality, was covertly preparing for war against Russia, reported the ISW.

Medvedev’s comments were not stand-alone threats. Multiple Kremlin officials, including Putin who said “there will be problems” after Finland joined NATO, have claimed the alliance will use Finland as a “springboard” to attack Russia. 

“Russia has been steadily setting conditions to attack NATO over the past several years: Moscow is standing up new divisions and optimizing its command and control headquarters on NATO’s eastern flank,” George Barros, Senior Russia Analyst with ISW told Fox News Digital. “The Kremlin information warfare apparatus is fabricating claims and justifications for why Finland, the Baltic States, and Poland are not real countries. 

“These are the prerequisite preparations for future war that Moscow is preparing,” he warned. 

Russian tanks move during the “Zapad-2025” joint Russian-Belarusian military drills at a training ground near the town of Borisov, east of the capital Minsk, Belarus, on Sept. 15, 2025.  (Olesya Kurpyayeva/AFP via Getty Images)

Sakaliene echoed these concerns and additionally pointed to Russia’s use of “soft power,” often employed through social media and traditional media, to influence public perception, which she warned is “alarmingly effective.”

“We see a picture of a very aggressive country which is investing a disproportionate amount of its funds into their military capacity,” the defense minister said. “Despite heavy losses every week, every month, they are moving forward in Ukraine, and at the same time, they are expanding their capabilities. 

“It raises considerable doubts if all that mass of military power is being accumulated only for Ukraine,” Sakaliene said.