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Former Pima County supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) is projected to win the special election to fill the House seat held by her late father, former Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), according to Decision Desk HQ.
Grijalva beat Republican small businessowner Daniel Butierez in the general election in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, which spans most of the state’s southern border and includes part of Tucson.
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Grijalva was widely expected to win the seat given former Vice President Harris won the seat in 2024 by 22 points, while her father had won his seat by close to 27 points.
The special election is a critical one for Democrats, given that Grijalva’s win will bring Republicans’ narrow GOP majority to a 219-214 split, meaning Republicans will only be able to afford two defections on legislation assuming all members are present and voting.
That margin allows Democrats to enjoy some leverage over Republicans ahead of a looming Sept. 30 government shutdown deadline.
Grijalva’s win also means that Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) will clinch the number of members needed to support their discharge petition over the Jeffrey Epstein files and the Justice Department’s handling of it.
Massie and Khanna will have 218 signatures once Grijalva signs on, which she has indicated she will do. That will enable them to force a vote on legislation that would require the Justice Department to release unclassified Epstein files.
The White House has received blowback over their handling of the Epstein files, particularly after the Justice Department determined earlier this year that Epstein did not have a “client list”
— even though some Trump allies had alluded otherwise previously
— and died by suicide.
House GOP leadership has sought to ameliorate some of their base, with the House Oversight and Reform Committee holding a private meeting with some of Epstein’s accusers and making public some documents from Epstein’s estate. But other subpoena moves have were quashed by Republicans.
