The number of registered independent voters is on the rise in the U.S., forcing campaigns to grapple with tough questions about how to target these voters ahead of next year’s midterms and the 2028 presidential election.

According to a recent report from The Hill’s partners at Decision Desk HQ, a majority of U.S. states are reporting their most significant voter registration gains are coming from voters who do not want to be affiliated with a political party. On top of that, exit polling from the 2024 presidential election found that self-identified independents outnumbered registered Democrats. 

Experts say one of the main drivers in independent voters is a growing discontent with the two-party system. 

“Dissatisfaction with the partisan rancor of our current political environment and a feeling of frustration about gridlock and things like that are contributing to people saying ‘Hey, I don’t want to openly say that I identify with one of the two major parties,’” said Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ.

Some say part of the rise in independent voters can be attributed to increased automatic voter registration in various states. Front-end administration automatically enrolls the voter at the Department of Motor Vehicles and permits them to opt out during the process. Back-end administration auto enrolls the voter but does not allow them to opt out during the process. 

Skelley noted one trend that has remained unchanged is that most independents tend to lean either to the left or the right. Exit polling from last year’s presidential election suggests that many independents swung toward Republicans, appearing to play a key role in delivering major battleground states to President Trump. 

According to exit polling data from Edison Research, the share of independent voters in 2024 tied Republicans at 34 percent. Democrats’ share of the electorate came in at 32 percent. Additionally, the turnout share of independent voters increased by 8 points in November but was still behind Republicans and Democrats. 

Some Democrats say this should be cause for concern for the party, given Trump’s widespread wins. 

“This isn’t a surprise,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist. “It’s also a very direct rebuke and an indication of the fact that national Democrats, so many of them have lost their way and have just failed at communicating to voters, so voters are either being pulled to the right or they’re being disaffected and registering that dissatisfaction by going to the independent option.” 

However, exit polling showed former Vice President Kamala Harris outperformed Trump with independents. According to Edison Research, 50 percent of independents said they voted for Harris, while 45 percent said they voted for Trump. 

Still, the data showed Trump improving his standing among independents by 4 points. 

Reinish blames the Democrats’ slippage with independent voters on the failure to meet voters where they are and speak to them in an authentic manner. 

“Stop talking like you’re trying to run a small liberal arts college and talk to people about what exactly matters,” he said. 

One Republican operative noted the GOP has been able to target these voters by focusing on kitchen-table issues that are catered toward particular states. 

“It’s going to the economy, cost of living, education, public safety. Those are consistently at the top,” the operative said. “But it’s also going to be things like energy costs.” 

The operative used New Jersey’s gubernatorial race as an example of a state where energy costs are one of the top issues, noting GOP nominee Jack Ciatarelli’s talking point that the state has driven up those costs.

“That same persuadable message isn’t going to work in a Virginia for a Winsome Sears,” the operative said, referring to state Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R), who is running for governor. 

“Their behavior varies state by state, election by election, issue by issue,” the operative said. “It’s not a monolith. A good chunk of independent voters aren’t truly independent. They tend to vote with a party 90 percent of the time but can be persuaded in big critical races.”

Skelley echoed this point, noting independent voters often reflect a state’s political lean. Last week, the Colorado secretary of state office announced unaffiliated voters make up the majority of registered voters. According to the data, 50.3 percent of registered voters said they were unaffiliated, while 24.8 percent said they identified with the Democratic Party and 22.4 percent said the same about the Republican Party. 

But that does not necessarily mean a statewide win for Republicans in Colorado would be easy. According to Axios Denver, 60 percent of those unaffiliated voters lean to the left, while the rest lean toward Republicans. 

“We know at the end of the day given Colorado’s lean that generally speaking those voters are more likely to be Democratic-leaning than Republican-leaning,” Skelley said. “In a state that is more conservative, there is a decent chance that those voters are going to lean Republican.” 

Massachusetts and Alaska lead the states in independent voters, with independents making up 62 percent of the voting population in Massachusetts and 60 percent in Alaska. 

Other states with large independent voter shares include New Hampshire, Connecticut, North Carolina, Iowa and Oregon, showing how independent voters are spread throughout red, blue and purple states.

Skelley predicted the increased share of independent voters ironically could stand to feed partisanship, allowing the most staunch supporters of each party to take the reins of party apparatuses and campaigns.

“To some extent that also means they are in a way absenting themselves from the political process given how we nominate candidates, who people within parties listen to, who’s volunteering for campaigns, who’s involved in politics,” Skelley said. “It is quite possible that is contributing to polarization because people who might be less stringent in their partisan views are not involving themselves closely.” 

The Republican operative noted that ultimately, both parties will have to grapple with the rise in independent voters going forward. 

“That independent voter does get treated differently in each state and even their propensity to vote is different in each state,” the operative said. 

“You have to be able to figure out how to message to both,” the operative added. “This is the art of campaigning.”