With elections scheduled for Nov. 11, Iraq is heading toward another vote. But the outcome is already being written in Tehran. Iran’s agents have infiltrated Iraq’s election commission, manipulating the process before a single ballot is cast. 

Votes are not counted — they are engineered. Through a process known as apportionment, parliamentary seats are divided in advance among groups including militias and political allies tied to the so-called muqawama — Iran-backed resistance militias. This includes not only Shia factions but also Kurdish and Iraqi groups drawn into Iran’s orbit. 

The people of Iraq are being robbed of their voices.

This is not the democratic Iraq the U.S. promised when it removed Saddam Hussein. Instead, America’s unfinished project left a vacuum that Tehran eagerly filled. 

Iraq’s elections are no longer contests of ideas or competition for public trust. Today, Iraq’s government often answers not to its citizens, but to the Ayatollahs. The illusion of democracy hides the erosion of sovereignty. Iranian influence reaches into every corner of Iraq — and Washington must decide before Nov. 11 whether to resist or yield.

This betrayal is not only of Iraqis who once believed in change, but of the very principles the U.S. claimed to be upholding in 2003. America promised freedom but instead allowed the theocracy next door to seize control of Baghdad.

The U.S. can no longer afford its policy of ambiguity. With Iraq’s elections approaching, it faces two stark options. First, it could walk away, abandoning Iraq to Iran’s ayatollahs and accept that Baghdad will become another satellite of Tehran. On the other hand, the U.S. could push back and confront Iranian interference, strengthen Iraq’s democratic institutions and give the Iraqi people the sovereignty they deserve.

To do nothing is to choose surrender by default.

If the U.S. retreats after Iraq’s election, the consequences will extend far beyond Iraq. Every Iranian proxy will be emboldened, and Tehran will tighten its grip across the region. Israel will face heightened threats. U.S. allies in the Gulf will view American passivity as an invitation to tilt toward Tehran.

Nor is this only a Middle Eastern problem. It is a direct challenge to U.S. credibility worldwide. After years of sacrifice, trillions of dollars spent and countless lives lost, what message will it send if Washington abandons Iraq to its greatest regional adversary?

The Iraqi people have endured dictatorship, invasion, terrorism and corruption. They should not now be condemned to live as pawns in Iran’s geopolitical game. Iraq still has the potential to be a sovereign nation with its own voice, but only if Washington chooses to act before Nov. 11.

The U.S. owes Iraq more than broken promises. It owes Iraq the chance to live free of Iran’s grip. If Washington fails, Iraq’s story will not be written by its people, but by Tehran.

This chapter of history is not yet finished. But unless America wakes up, Iran will write the ending. Whoever leads the United States must act before this catastrophe becomes irreversible.

Heyrsh Abdul is a senior business and intelligence analyst who has worked with organizations in Washington, D.C. He specializes in Middle East affairs, Iraqi elections and Iranian regional influence.