The New Jersey governor’s race is growing increasingly competitive, sending troubling signals for Democrats in a state where Republicans have made inroads. 

A recent poll from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill showed Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli tied at 43 percent. Meanwhile, a Decision Desk HQ polling average of the race has the Democrat leading by 4 points. 

The survey underscores how Democrats can’t take the state for granted, particularly after term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) narrowly won his last reelection four years ago by 3 points and former Vice President Harris only won it in November by close to 6 points.   

“I’m not surprised, I always thought this was a competitive race,” said Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky about the recent polling. 

The polls showing Sherrill seven or eight points ahead were “outliers,” Roginsky argued, “because I just don’t think that is possible in a state like New Jersey after eight years of Democratic control.” 

The race to replace Murphy is coming down to the wire more than a month before the November election, with Ciattarelli and Sherrill pointing to each other’s party as who should be blamed for the current economic environment in the state.  

Ciattarelli has argued that continued Democratic governance, including two terms for Murphy, has wreaked too much havoc on property taxes and energy prices. Meanwhile, Sherrill is looking to defy political headwinds a political party has never won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the Garden State since the early ’60s and point the finger at the Republicans and the Trump administration.

Outside groups have also emphasized those messages. 

“Under Democrat rule in Trenton, New Jersey families have been getting screwed on energy prices, property taxes and public safety. Mikie Sherrill represents the status quo and would rather cast blame than present any plan to move New Jersey forward,” Kollin Crompton, Republican Governors Association rapid response director, said in a statement to The Hill.  

“On the flip side, Jack Ciattarelli represents change and has offered detailed plans on how to lower energy costs, cut and cap property taxes, and keep New Jersey families safe,” he added. 

Democratic Governors Association spokeswoman Izzi Ivey, meanwhile, told The Hill in a statement that Ciattarelli was “auditioning to be the ‘Trump of Trenton,’” adding that he was “refusing to create an inch of daylight with the president and embracing Washington Republicans’ agenda that spikes utility bills and kicks 350,000 New Jerseyans off their health insurance.”

Earlier outside, independent polling showed Sherrill with a more comfortable lead, while some polls conducted for Ciattarelli or Republican-aligned groups showed a narrower race.  

DDHQ’s polling average of the race shows Sherrill leading Ciattarelli at almost 47 percent to 42 percent. Those numbers factor in internal and GOP-aligned polling, but internal polling is ultimately averaged out in the overall DDHQ average if there’s more than one internal poll included. 

While the Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill survey offers just one data point, it does provide some potential warning signs for both campaigns. 

The survey shows that Trump enjoys a higher approval rating, 41 percent, compared to Murphy at 35 percent. At the same time, Trump has a higher disapproval rating of 51 percent compared to Murphy’s 44 percent.  

The polling also shows some positive signs for Ciattarelli; the Republican gubernatorial nominee is leading Sherrill among independents at close to 52 percent compared to her 26 percent. A separate 17 percent of independents say they’re undecided. 

“That’s the ratio he needs,” said veteran New Jersey GOP strategist Mike DuHaime. 

DuHaime noted that while the mechanics of the race are different now than they were during the 2009 governor’s race between former Gov. Chris Christie (R) and former Gov. Jon Corzine (D), Christie notched 60 percent of the independent vote. 

“If you win two to one, you’ve got a chance to win a close race,” DuHaime, who worked on Christie’s 2009 campaign, said of independent voters. 

Sherrill’s party is aided by the fact that registered Democrats outpace registered Republicans by roughly 861,000, though Republicans have been looking to close that gap. Still, a significant portion of the voting electorate are independents 2.3 million, according to the latest state voter data release in September, roughly 200,000 shy of the Democrats’ total in the state. 

A second data point from the recent survey is the fact that while Sherrill holds a 57-point lead among Black and African American voters over Ciattarelli, roughly 18 percent said they were undecided. Sherrill also holds a close to 34-point lead among Asian voters, though close to 12 percent say they’re undecided. 

Republican strategist Jeanette Hoffman said Ciattarelli isn’t taking Black voters for granted, pointing to him campaigning in places like Paterson and Newark. She also pointed out a recent op-ed from former Newark Councilman Oscar James II, who said he wouldn’t be voting for Sherrill this cycle. 

Nasik Emmanuel Shahid Watson benAvraham, the CEO and president of The Voices of Organic Black Men, responded in his own op-ed, noting that Black support for Democrats wasn’t guaranteed but argued that Sherrill was meeting the moment for the key constituency in a way that Ciattarelli wasn’t. 

Mo Butler, a New Jersey DNC committee member and former chief of staff to Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), described those numbers as both a “warning sign” and an “opportunity” for Sherrill and Democrats. 

He noted she’s been able to have prominent New Jersey Black Democrats coalesce around her campaign, including Booker and former primary opponent Ras Baraka. At the same time, he advised that she “drill down on those issues that are important to that community.” 

“It can’t be about what you’re against. It has to be about what you’re for,” he said. “You know, we understand that Trump has not been good to Black and brown communities. What are you going to do to demonstrate your leadership within that community?” 

DuHaime, meanwhile, suggested the percentage of undecided among Black and African American voters isn’t necessarily a problem for Sherrill, suggesting “when New Jersey races get close and you see that many undecideds, the people who mostly vote Democrat, they mostly come back.”  

While Republicans have a good chance of changing their fortunes this November, several analysts see Democrats as having the upper hand at least for now. Nonpartisan election handicappers Cook Political and Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics rate the New Jersey gubernatorial race as leaning Democratic. 

Still, pundits and political observers are watching both races in Virginia and New Jersey as potential bellwethers of the national mood, though candidate quality and local issues play significant roles. While some caution against reading too much into New Jersey’s election next year, some experts say it could offer some further clues about the competitiveness of the Garden State moving forward. 

If Republicans perform well, it would be “taken as a sign that the shifts we saw in New Jersey in 2024 were not necessarily an aberration,” said DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley.

“If Ciattarelli can win with Trump in office, I think it would at least signal that, OK, New Jersey is fundamentally more competitive.”