Despite whipsaw-like tariff announcements, a weakening economy, and domestic challenges, President Trump’s polling so far is best described as remarkably consistent. 

As the final quarter of 2025 begins, Trump’s approval rating per New York Times’ polling aggregator sits at 54 percent disapprove versus 43 percent approve.  

Going as far back as mid-April, those numbers have been virtually frozen within a 3-point range. Other aggregators, such as RealClearPolitics’ show the same picture. 

These suggest that both Trump’s ceiling and floor appear to be extremely solid.  

Whether or not that general consistency holds in the wake of the government shutdown, which began Wednesday, remains to be seen. It also has tremendous implications for the upcoming midterms. 

Put another way, voters who back Trump continue to, and those who oppose him also continue to.  

For the GOP to be successful in midterms, they need to reach independents who voted for Trump’s economic inflation, immigration and crime policies. Democrats need to show that Trump either is not living up to his promises, or is making those issues considerably worse. 

To that end, while Trump’s polling may be range bound, under the surface, warning signs should be flashing, not only for the GOP, but also for Democrats, who remain considerably unpopular.  

For Trump and Republicans, it should be alarming that 6 in 10 (59 percent) of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, with a similar 60 percent disapproving of Trump’s handling of inflation and prices, per YouGov/Economist polling. 

A majority of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the overall economy and healthcare (53 percent disapprove for each) according to the same poll. And given that this shutdown is over health care funding, the administration will need to make its case to prevent a further slide in Trump’s numbers. 

At the same time, 26 percent of voters, and a similar 24 percent of independents, said the economy is “excellent” or “good” in a recent New York Times/Siena poll, reflecting a growing trend of economic pessimism. 

According to RealClearPolitics, every poll conducted since early March shows Trump’s approval underwater on the economy with two exceptions, which were tied. 

To Trump’s benefit, the stock market has largely shaken off signs of a slowing economy, suggesting that any weakness will be temporary. 

And yet, the market is not the economy, and Americans are clearly concerned. It’s entirely possible that a prolonged shutdown accompanied by thousands of federal job cuts and delayed benefits for millions, could exacerbate those concerns. 

In that same vein, polls continue to reflect Democrats’ struggles, including among their own voters. Even as a majority of voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, Democrats hold just a 2-point lead in a generic vote for Congress (47 percent to 45 percent) in the New York Times/Siena poll, a virtual tie and essentially unchanged since their 3-point lead in April.  

Marist polling revealed that a significant majority (62 percent) of voters disapprove of the job congressional Democrats are doing, while just 25 percent approve. Among independents, two-thirds disapproved versus 19 percent approval. If this continues, it may portend disappointment for Democrats in next year’s midterms.  

While it remains to be seen how long this shutdown will last and how sentiment may change, Democrats find themselves fighting an uphill battle. The aforementioned New York Times/Siena poll shows that 65 percent of voters, including 59 percent of independents and 43 percent of Democrats, agreed with the statement “Democrats should not shut down the government, even if their demands are not met.” 

To be sure, these findings represent the continuation of a polling trend that has been evident since the 2024 election. Shut out of power, unable to muster genuine opposition to Trump, and lacking a strong leader with a unifying agenda, Democrats have seen their popularity plummet.  

According to Pew Research, roughly 6 in 10 (59 percent) of Democratic voters disapprove of the party’s congressional leadership. Among Republican voters, GOP leaders in Congress have a 69 percent approval rating, reflecting the gap in discontent with their leaders between Democrats and Republicans. 

Compounding Democrats’ struggles are the issues of crime and immigration, key concerns for voters in 2024 which helped Trump sway large swaths of voters.  

A majority of voters approve of Trump’s policy to deport illegal immigrants (54 percent) in the NYT/Siena survey, while his approval on handling crime (48 percent) was the highest mark the President received.  

Similarly, Trump’s moves to secure the border were met with approval by a majority (55 percent) of U.S. adults, also his strongest issue, in a separate poll from Marquette University. 

Ultimately, even if Trump’s overall approval ratings remain in a narrow range, the shifts under the surface carry tremendous implications, particularly for the midterms.  

If Democrats can capitalize on his low approval ratings on critical issues, the economy, inflation, and health care, voters may come to see them as a viable opposition party.  

Alternatively, if the “big, beautiful bill” impacts the economy via increased hiring, renewed consumer confidence, and reigning in costs, then Republicans will likely remain in control of Congress.  

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”