Since January 2025 at least 16 people have died in ICE detention centers — the highest number since 2020, when the pandemic exposed the system’s weaknesses.

At the same time the number of migrants in custody passed 60,000 in August, double the number last year. The expansion of detention centers correlates with the rise in deaths, showing that conditions are not ready for the pressure. Official reporting about “safe oversight” does not match reality, pointing to a gap between the number of arrests and the ability of centers and staff to provide even basic care.

In 2024, with an average of about 35,000 people in custody, 13 deaths were recorded — about 3.7 per 10,000 detainees. In 2025, with custody numbers doubling to more than 60,000, 16 deaths by September comes to 2.7 per 10,000. If trends hold, the annualized rate could reach 4.0 per 10,000 by year-end, surpassing last year.

On paper, the rate looks similar, but the reality is different. A bigger system means more preventable deaths overall. As detention expands, the strain on weak medical staffing and overcrowded facilities guarantees that the absolute number will keep rising.

The main problem is clear: overcrowding. According to DHS, many centers are designed for 400 to 600 people but hold several times more. Recent TRAC data show that about 25 percent of facilities are operating above planned capacity, which in practice means not enough space, staff, or timely medical care.

DHS inspections in 2020 through 2023 kept telling the same story: There were not enough doctors, delays in care, and contractors failing basic standards. Reports describe cases where something as simple as high blood pressure or diabetes turned dangerous, because there was no timely treatment. In one review, investigators found staff shortages so bad that intake exams were skipped or delayed for weeks. These are not isolated mistakes but systemic problems that keep repeating.

ICE facilities face severe medical staff shortages, often leaving inadequate care for detainees. The situation has likely worsened since 2023. When centers grow faster than infrastructure, basic needs fall behind, and that feeds deaths from chronic illnesses or slow emergency response

The push to expand detention follows the familiar logic of politics. For elections, large detention centers look stronger to voters than “soft” alternatives like electronic monitoring. But DHS studies in 2023 and 2024 already showed that alternatives cost far less and still result in high court-appearance rates.

Still, federal officials choose detention as a show of force. Especially in Texas and Florida, building detention centers is a standard strategy that matches the preferences of Republican voters and is broadly supported locally. In electoral logic, crowded centers and visible removals play better than quiet statistics on ankle monitors, even if the results are the same.

Detaining immigrants is a big-money business. Each detainee nets $125–165 daily, a grotesque profit model bankrolled by Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida, in which preventable deaths are treated as the collateral damage of a “tough” immigration policy. In ICE’s detention surge, private firms like GEO Group and CoreCivic turn misery into millions of dollars. GEO Group announced $133 million in profits in the first two quarters of 2025.

In 2025 ICE requested another $2 billion for expansion, including 34,000 additional detention beds. At the same time, the TRAC report showed the agency already had alternatives that cost, on average, $8.36 per day compared to $157 for detention.

Concentrating so many beds in southern states creates dependence on private contractors, where every new contract becomes an incentive to keep overcrowding alive and put more immigrants’ lives at risk.

Artem Kolisnichenko writes on crime, immigration, and border policy across the American South and Southwest.