“They will disarm because they’ve committed to do so,” asserted President Donald Trump from the White House on Tuesday. “If they fail to disarm, we will step in to ensure it happens. They understand I’m serious.”

Mr. President, the stability of the Middle East hinges on this matter.

Trump’s stern warning followed the release of disturbing videos from Gaza, emerging less than a day after the signing of the Israel-Gaza peace agreement. The footage reveals Hamas militants mercilessly executing Palestinians on the streets. The extremist group, with a twisted rationale, claims these are “Israeli collaborators,” but in reality, they are eliminating their political adversaries within Palestine.

There is no illusion about Hamas and its allies; they are biding their time until they can rebuild their militant forces at Israel’s doorstep.

For months, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) has been advising the White House, alongside Israeli officials and military leaders, on crafting the Gaza peace initiative. The FDD consistently emphasized that the enduring risk to peace lies in the incomplete and reversible disarmament of Hamas.

Now that challenge stares the world in the face.

Hamas’s disarmament is a key part of Trump’s 20-point plan. The first phase called for Israel to withdraw its forces, returning about 50 percent of Gaza to the Palestinian people.

Israel has now done that. Hamas – which is already in violation of its obligations under the deal to release all of the bodies of murdered hostages – released 20 Israeli live hostages and, in turn, Israel let go of 2,000 Palestinian prisoners of which 250 were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis, Americans and others.

Trump’s ultimatum came in response to videos leaking out of Gaza less than 24 hours after the Israel-Gaza peace deal was signed

The footage shows Hamas terrorists executing Palestinians in the streets 

If the peace plan continues in good faith, Israel will conduct additional withdrawals, eventually pulling back to the perimeter of the Gaza enclave, opening the way for phase two – the deployment of an international stabilization force.

This force – ideally composed of US, Arab and other global partners – will be tasked with enforcing the disarmament of Hamas, vetting and training a Palestinian police force and putting in place the conditions for the redevelopment of Gaza.

Under this vision, Gaza will be temporarily governed by a ‘Gaza Peace Board,’ chaired by President Trump and possibly including international figures like former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and others from Arab or Western nations. But this all depends on the effective disarmament of Hamas – which the terrorists and their ideological allies in the Muslim world will surely attempt to sabotage.

Hamas is one of three wings of the Muslim Brotherhood. The others are in Turkey (the military wing) and Qatar (the financial and propaganda wing).

Hamas has always been very useful to the Muslim Brotherhood’s cause – regional domination and the elimination of Israel.

They wouldn’t have agreed to the Gaza Peace Plan, unless Trump had threatened to unleash Israel to decimate Hamas’s last stronghold in Gaza City. Additionally, in return for Qatar and Turkey’s cooperation, the US has agreed to provide a defense and security agreement to Doha and host a contingent of Qatari F-15 fighter jets and pilots, at an Idaho military base. And, I expect, the US may also soon lift a ban on selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey (a privilege which Trump and Congress rightly revoked during his first term after Turkey purchased a Russian air defense system).

But this budding partnership does not mean that Qatar and Turkey are committed to peace.

They want Hamas to retain control of their weapons and wait out the international community’s short attention span. They will bide their time until the world is distracted by some other crisis or political event and then Hamas – through violence and intimidation – will seek to reconstitute itself in Gaza, folding itself into whatever new governance structure is established.

It is not difficult to imagine Hamas re-branding itself the ‘Gaza Security Force’ and continuing its terroristic reign over the Palestinian people. That’s what happened in Lebanon following Israel’s 1978 limited incursion into Lebanon in response to cross-border terror attacks by the Palestine Liberation Organization that killed 38 Israeli civilians.

The United Nations established the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), as a peacekeeping mission in Lebanon to disarm terrorists, support the army and confirm Israel’s withdrawal. But UNIFIL failed and Hezbollah took hold in Lebanon as a shadow government for decades, attacking Israel, until Israel demolished it last year in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks.

None of this will come as a surprise to the Trump administration.

The likelihood that the Turks, the Qataris, the Saudis, the Egyptians, the Emiratis and others fulfil their commitments to send troops to Gaza to stand-up an international stabilization force are slim.

Hamas – which is already in violation of its obligations under the deal to release all of the bodies of murdered hostages – released 20 Israeli live hostages. (Pictured: Released Israeli hostage Omri Miran)

In turn, Israel let go of 2,000 Palestinian prisoners (pictured)

It’s far more likely that Gaza will be policed under one of two models.

The first – the most optimistic scenario – is the Lebanon model.

Since the IDF decimated Hezbollah, the IDF has continued to fight Hezbollah terrorists, allowing for the Lebanese armed forces and the Lebanese government to move into these areas and solidify control of their own country.

The other model is the West Bank model.

This is not very well-known, but every day and every evening the IDF is operating in the West Bank, clearing Hamas and other terrorist groups in places like Jenin, Nablus and Tulkarm.

In just a few years, there’s been an 85 percent reduction in the terrorist threats coming out of these and other West Bank towns. But it requires Israel to do nearly all of the fighting and dying with limited cooperation from the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinian security forces.

This is the White House’s great fear. That the international stabilization force will not materialize, leaving Israel to again carry the burden alone.

And the centuries-long war will rage on.

After the euphoria for the past several days, the White House is fully aware of the excruciating problem they face – and that it will demand presidential attention. The lingering question: Is President Trump up to the task with all that demands his attention?

Mark Dubowitz is the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.