An expert in security matters has highlighted the crucial importance of the first 48 hours in the hunt for an American Christian missionary abducted in Niger, West Africa. This individual may have already been transferred between territories under the influence of an ISIS faction.

During an exclusive conversation with Fox News Digital, Bryan Stern, the founder of the crisis response organization Grey Bull Rescue, shared insights about the dynamics of organized kidnappings. He emphasized that those who initially capture a hostage are often not the ones who ultimately detain them.

“In most cases, the initial captors are not the ones who maintain custody of the hostage,” Stern explained. “The individuals who handle hostages tend to be more intelligent, resourceful, and less expendable. Therefore, swift action is crucial in these situations.”

Stern noted that with every hour that passes, the likelihood of a successful rescue diminishes. Hostages are frequently exchanged or sold among various groups with different agendas, ranging from financial gain to propaganda, complicating efforts to understand the captors’ demands.

Captured on September 7, 2023, this image depicts Niger’s presidential palace in Niamey. The structure has been under the control of military forces since President Mohamed Bazoum was ousted in a coup earlier in 2023. (AFP via Getty Images)

“It’s easy to understand who took somebody, but once people start getting traded around like cards and stuff, it’s hard to then understand what the current holding party wants,” he said.

The groups often operate with their own chain of command and pecking order, each with different goals and levels of influence.

“All those different things play into how you’re gonna get somebody back, and the most dangerous thing to do is send ninjas in and shoot everybody,” Stern said. “That’s the most highest-risk thing that we do because there’s no margin for error.”

Niger’s junta leader Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani salutes during an official ceremony in Niamey, Niger, on Aug. 26, 2023. Tchiani seized power in a July 2023 coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and has ruled the West African nation since. (AFP via Getty Images)

U.S. officials confirmed they are aware of the kidnapping, which took place in Niamey, about 100 yards from Niger’s presidential palace. The missionary, a pilot for the evangelical group Serving in Mission, was reportedly taken north toward an area controlled by an ISIS offshoot.

A State Department spokesperson said embassy officials are working closely with local authorities and that the Trump administration views the safe return of the U.S. citizen as a top priority. The U.S. Embassy has also restricted staff movements to armored vehicles and prohibited visits to restaurants and open-air markets.

Stern described the region as “31 flavors,” meaning there is everything from Russian proxies to criminal gangs and Islamic fundamentalists running around.

A general view of a crowded street market in Niamey, Niger, on May 17, 2023. The capital city has faced rising instability since the 2023 military coup that toppled President Mohamed Bazoum. (Michele Cattani / AFP via Getty Images)

While it’s easy to assume Islamist militants were behind the abduction, Stern cautioned, “until you know…it becomes speculation.”

“At some point, somebody will ask for something, you hope,” he said. “It’s very scary when they don’t ask for anything… the worst case scenario is a hostage taken by someone who doesn’t want anything. Then there’s no play to be made other than find them and kill them, and hopefully you survive that process.”

For now, the focus is on finding proof of life and establishing communication.

U.S. special operations units are likely monitoring surveillance and communications from the region, but Stern cautioned that a rescue attempt would be “the most dangerous thing special operations does.”

Officials have not said whether any group has claimed responsibility or issued any demands.