HONG KONG – China’s efforts to compete with aviation giants Boeing and Airbus through its domestically produced passenger jet are encountering significant hurdles. The country is unlikely to meet this year’s ambitious delivery goals for its aircraft.

The C919, a single-aisle jet designed to challenge Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’s A320, is manufactured by the state-owned COMAC. This aircraft is being positioned as a testament to China’s technological prowess and its drive for self-sufficiency. However, the plane still relies heavily on components sourced from Western countries.

Escalating trade tensions with the United States pose a risk to COMAC’s ability to obtain essential parts for the C919, despite receiving substantial subsidies from the Chinese government.

“COMAC is significantly impacted by the ever-changing policy landscape, with its supply chain susceptible to export bans and reciprocal actions between the U.S. and China,” noted Max J. Zenglein, senior economist for the Asia-Pacific region at The Conference Board think tank.

According to analysts from Bank of America, the C919’s supply chain includes 48 key suppliers from the U.S., such as GE, Honeywell, and Collins, alongside 26 from Europe and 14 from China. Tensions intensified when former President Trump threatened to enforce new export restrictions on “critical” software to China, following Beijing’s decision to tighten export controls on rare earth elements.

“Existing choke points are being exploited in the deal making process between governments,” Zenglein said. “This is likely to continue as critical dependencies have become political bargaining chips.”

Beijing has high hopes for the C919, which made its maiden commercial flight in 2023. The mid-sized jet is meant to help fill vast domestic demand for new aircraft over the next few decades. China hopes to expand sales beyond its borders and fly globally, including in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

COMAC delivered 13 C919s to Chinese carriers last year and only seven as of October this year, despite plans to ramp up production and deliver 30 jets in 2025, according to the aviation consultancy Cirium.

China’s biggest state-owned airlines — Air China, China Eastern and China Southern — are the only commercial airlines currently flying a total of around 20 C919s.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have “directly affected” delivery schedules for the C919, said Dan Taylor, head of consulting at aviation consultancy IBA. For one, output plans were disrupted when the U.S. suspended export licenses for the jet’s LEAP-1C engines around May, resuming them in July, he said.

U.S.-controlled technology that needs export licensing for the LEAP-1C engines — jointly built by the U.S.’s GE Aerospace and France’s Safran -— means the C919’s engines require U.S. export clearance, Taylor said, making it “inherently sensitive to political shifts.”

“Engine and avionics dependence on Western suppliers continues to expose the program to policy decisions beyond COMAC’s control,” Taylor explained.

Geopolitical tensions alone are not the only cause for slower than expected production of the C919s. The program has been “marked by caution and prioritizing quality and safety, so there also may be some operational reasons for the slower production ramp up,” said Zenglein from The Conference Board.

While “it has always been the aim to reduce the reliance on foreign components as quickly as possible” for the C919, Zenglein said, many analysts say it is a challenging process. China’s own engine alternative — the CJ-1000A under development by state-owned Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) — is still under testing, according to IBA.

Several airlines outside of China, including AirAsia, have expressed interest in flying the C919, but a lack of international certification has so far prevented the C919 from flying beyond China. Certifications from the U.S. and the European Union’s aviation regulators could take years.

For the C919 to succeed, it “needs to have each one of three things: good economics, a prompt global product support network, and certification from safety agencies”, said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory. “Any one of these three alone doesn’t mean much,” he said.

China will need 9,570 new passenger aircraft between 2025 and 2044, according to Airbus’ latest market forecast, more than 80% of them single-aisle jets like the C919.

COMAC’s faces a growing challenge from Airbus, which is expanding its manufacturing capacity in China. A second assembly line is due to begin operating in 2026, allowing Airbus to increase its production of A320 single-aisle jets in China – an aircraft model similar to the C919.

Analysts expect that it will take years for COMAC to break the Boeing-Airbus duopoly in global aircraft share. By the late 2020s, COMAC will likely grow within China and possibly establish regional exports, said IBA’s Taylor.

In the near term, a lack of international certification will be “delaying any meaningful Western-market entry” for the jet and export control volatility will likely continue to undermine its global expansion plans, Taylor added.